I'm already short from the top with a high risk entry from the test of the upper trendline. I'm looking for another entry which would be a break of this downward pink flag. This would confirm the down move is impulsive and likely to continue to re-test the lower tendline where further analysis will be necessary.
Credit to Anil Mangal for his sense of direction on this pair. Here's how I'll be looking for my first entry. If the top of the flag pink flag is broken, this move becomes impulsive and I may look for a buy entry instead.
Given the small risk to reward of a short at the current level to re-test the green line, plus the additional possibility of the orange trendline causing resistance or causing another corrective flag to form, I'm not interested in this sell.
When a price breaks out of a flag, one way to check if the break is impulsive is to see if it remains contained by parallel lines (another, smaller flag). In this case the pink flag was broken, but on the 15m chart we can see the blue lines are parallel. Price did not break from the lower side of the blue flag. No impulse, no entry. A larger flag is forming in...
This will make a great sell one day, but right now it looks uncertain to me. The last 3 up impulses have retraced 50% before taking off again. We could be in for another move up after the latest bounce from 50% (7220). I'd like to see a break of 7200 before selling again.
I predict a good chance of a reversal here. The correction has retraced 61.8% of the last impulse, which also converges with the upper daily trend. An hourly close above the green trendline invalidates this idea.
61.8% retracement (A wave) of a 5 wave upmove, re-test of daily resistance turned support, doji then hammer 4H candles. Buy now with a stop below the current low, or wait for a break of the thin green trendline for a lower risk trade.