The channel is defined by multiple extremes (arrows). The price did not move all the way down to the lower channel line at the beginning of this year, which is a bullish sign (circle). Presently we might be in a more sideway correction (triangle) undtil we start wave 5. A possible target might be around 160.000 at the end of 2020.
Backtest of the uptrend line. Very bearish monthly candles with long shadows resembling those of the last trend change (red ellipse). Truncated 5 as a likely wave count. Dire outlook for the near future while a new uptrend might unfold later as a wave 3 of one bigger degree. A possible 76% correction as a bigger wave 2 is indicated in blue. Buying oppertunities at...
This year's correvtive move made only 10% and therefore is to be regarded as a small bear flag. It ended after the price fell below the trendline a few days ago and the big down trend since 2017 is back.
After the price receding to 55 USD, there is no chart support down to 15 USD. After falling from 1600 to 15 USD the project likely will be dead.
After every new high during the present bullrun, the price fell back to the area of the preceding high. The one exeption after the most rapid ascent is marked by th arrow. This observation implies, that a new high should be reached soon.
One of the most successful long term trading strategies ist the above mentioned one, in which btc is sold on the first of may an rebought on october 1st.
Applied to BTCUSD, only 6 of the analyzed 15 periods did not fit the expectations (thumb down). A thorough quantitative analysis would be interesting.
The subwave 4 was a running flat, which is a bullish sign. Note that is subwave 1 was 24% and subwave 3 50%, the third wave can be elongated which hints to a target of 450 USD. Here are corresponding older resistances.
Note also that this wave 5 will only end a subwave of the third degree ( higher degrees are also designated with larger 1 and 2).
In analogy to the last two bullruns (red ellipse) the coming one might walk through the fib channel levels quite rapidly. Much energy was stored by the iterative first waves of lesser degrees during the last few months. The coming wave 5 should be extended.
Note that the top of wave 3 may in fact be the end of a wave 5 ending the first impulse of the preceding...