From "the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on": Now all the market has to do is get back to $SPX 2739 and for the $INDU to stay above its 200d SMA, then we have a quantified impulse wave up since December, and a new bull-market may be on its way. There is a 80% chance it may be so!!
The market appears to be stalling. Negative divergence hourly, and daily. Expect a 30 point+ pullback, then uptrend continuation to well above its 200 day SMA. Its normal to see the 200 SMA act as temporary resistance before it also cross above the 200 SMA as the DOW did recently. Lets see.
This uptrend is good for our long dated positions. Yet, I don't trust an embedded creeping market! It creeps up to confuse and frustrate shorts. It creeps up slowly to play for time so that our existing hedges (protection) run out of time! Will it creep through 200 day SMA? Will it pull back first? At this point we just have to wait and see.
On 2-Feb-19 - I wrote: "S&P 500 Index - May follow the DOW above its 200 day SMA", I now have my doubts! This is as good as it gets for a wave-4 back down to around SPX2552 to SPX2507 before wave-v kicks in to new highs.
Look above 200 day SMA and fail? Just a guess for now. Don't act premature. Market Breadth remain positive. However, if we dare predict, then, expect a look above 200 day SMA and fail. If so, next test of the Dec-18 lows may be steep down to around 2429. Not expecting lower lows any more.
S&P 500 Index may close higher by month-end. However, the third wave up may fall short of its 200 day SMA this month. If we do close higher this month, then, wave iv should start somewhere in first week of Feb-2019. Lets see.
This is why you need to be cautious and place a stop at $10.72:
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