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Lots of news for both currencies causing some major volatility.
GBP - BREXIT
AUD - Interest Rates
The downtrend is in tact but we are seeing a bottom potentially forming.
Another move down to test the bottom is possible. Each time support holds, it confirms my view and retrace back into 116s is possible.
Further upside possible with USD Dovish Tone
Weakness of Euro will continue! We need the combination of USD strength to break the range until then! Range bound trades are the best.
This level highlighted in Green has been solid support in this Year.
Fundamentals for Yen do not point further appreciation baring Risk OFF move.
Price action in this area is showing strong sellers.
We also have the spill over effect from eur neg rates looming w/ many analysts suggesting hike may be delayed due to that.
Price action on oil suggest buyers are stepping in this area.
Best to wait for a catalyst before entering.
Red Zone makes resistance levels
I noticed with the commodities falling yesterday, GBPCAD could not still break thru the resistance.
With poor china data still not enough to push GBPCAD higher.
W/ Consumer Price Index coming in at -0.1% was the catalyst to re-enter short
Looking toward ECB meeting to provide some catalyst for euro.
Latest oil inventory data from the EIA
API was -1200k. API Cushing -100k
Cushing +98k vs -540k
Gasoline +1910k vs +250k exp. Prior +3254k
Distilates -2458k vs -300k exp. Prior -267k
Refinery utilisation -2.30% vs -0.50% exp. Prior -1.10%
source : forexlive.com
With weak NFP numbers, it seemed likely that we would see a push higher on EURUSD w/ USD weakness being the theme. Currently this is not what price action eludes too.
Long term fundamentals still point for GBP to be bullish need a short term catalyst to jump into a long trade.
Westpac's chief economist Bill Evans is pretty bluint with what he expects from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday:
There is little chance that the Board will decide to change rates
And, looking ahead
Markets are giving a less than 10% probability to a move in October rising to a 25% probability by November and 50% by December
That pricing compares with ...
The main risk comes with the FOMC this week and if the Fed
do not hike and there are accompanying dovish remarks, then
this could all add to the bid in the commodity linked
currencies and see the Aussie take flight.
With RBNZ cutting rates again and maintaining a dovish tone.
MPC members slowly swinging towards hike.
Data is consistent enough for hikes.
If we get USD hikes off the table. This pair will be the buy.
and if we do get hikes the pair to buy after the sell off.