I am still a convinced bear on XAUUSD (see "Is Gold Still a safe-heaven")
This bearish divergence signals us another opportunity to short XAUUSD at a good level.
Moreover, we are hitting a more long term resistance (see in D).
My first target is at 1145 around the 200 moving average (in red). Then we would need an update on a more long term chart to know what's ...
The SPX is still following the 2011 pattern and I still think we should retest the low. The retest we saw last week was not relatively important. My target was not hit last week (around 1850) and then I still have a bearish sentiment.
Technically, the SPX is having a rangy trajectory and as we are at the top of the canal, it could be a good opportunity to enter ...
WTI is trading in sideway since the short squeeze.
The congestion phase continues, but if WTI pop above 46, we could see some stop triggered and a little rally toward 48.
This is a short term play, however, I still think WTI should rally at 50 before the end of the year.
Update on the H&S highlighted in "Post Fed : Uncertainty remains, markets are not going to like it" Post earlier today.
Market is down after the decision of the fed. Uncertainty remains. Should go dipper with US mkt open.
Below 3142 (confirmation point) there is no major resistance.
Target at 3000
The theory of second restest of the low stays after the decision of the fed not to hike the fed fund rate.
Uncertainty remains and market is now looking forward and there is no good news so far in the horizon..
I see a potential H&S to play.
WTI is breaking the resistance, if it close above tonight, we could see WTI rallying again.
However, in these times of high volatility, and because everything is depending on Fed decision of tomorrow, we could see irrational movements.
In these time of uncertainty, it is very difficult to take a position on the equity markets.
I still think there is no reason to have a bigger correction than the one we have known in August, but I believe the market has to retest the lows before rallying again.
I think several scenarios/events could hit the market before the end of October. (2 possible FOMC ...
To answer to a comment that "Rulbe detached itself from oil... continued to fall despite oil stabilized!"
I do not think so. Just look at the chart. There is huge correlation between them.
I would play a rebound on OIL and RUB
Last week, we saw a huge short squeeze in oil and it seems that there could bee a opportunity for Crude's bulls.
The RUB lost a big part of its value due to the Global fall in commodity prices.
However if we believe RUB and Crude touched the bottom, then we could try a short USDRUB, or if you think EUR is going to be smashed by Yellen on September (or October, or ...
Without any good/bad news, market is fluctuating in sideways and should not take a direction before FED rate hike decision...
I am a bull in the longterm, but I prefer to wait and see what the market will do from today till the FED day..
To be opportunistic I would play a short position and wait for a retest of the lows.
This chart has been inspired by Tony Dwyer idea that there should be a retest of the 40 levels on VIX by the end of September/October.
In 2011, we were more or less in the same situation, we saw VIX climbing above 40 a first time and then a second time later.
This hypothesis suggest market is still not ready to be 100% bullish before testing again the lows of ...
Gold is consolidating above the 1117-1118 resistance (go to "Gold should resume its fall" to see previous analysis), that could make us think it's not going to slip further into dips this week.
However, in 120, we can see a nice Golden cross (50,100 and 200 MA crossing) that is saying "SELL!!!"
If it breaks 1117, we could see gold touch 1100 by the end of the ...
Personally, I am a convinced bull. I see the major correction of the end of August as the previous corrections we saw in 2011 or even before in 1998 (see SPX and VIX in 2011 to see the similarities). We are more or less in the same situation today, and as corrections rarely make a "v" bottom (especially after such a sharp fall) I'll take my chance buying the ...
I'm long since 42 price level, with a target above 50 by the end of the year.
However we see a double top in 120, we could see a correction before the weekend, so time to take some profits and maybe add some long pos. at 43-43.50 levels.
With the equity market rebound, gold should continue its fall.
Additionally to my previous analysis on gold ("Is gold still a Safe Haven?"), I put a confirmation line which I think if it's broke, XAUUSD should fall more rapidly (see Indicators are almost giving a signal to sell, RSI almost below 50, crossing of the MACD and stoch lines and DMI should restart ...