mcrobbie

mcrobbie

Looking at the VIX Gaps for the past while, a pattern is emerging. Lets see if it follows through with a rise in SPX/SPY.

mcrobbie

I expect the market to stay afloat until CPI. I don't think the Bond Auctions were enough to scare bulls off completely until CPI confirms either direction. DXY also at top of channel, and could allow markets a breath.

mcrobbie

The DXY didn't breakout, and is turning right at resistance. I think we will hold this range until CPI, when market will take over. US30y poor auction results were catalyst for today's drop, but all hopes rest on CPI.

mcrobbie

Will holding equities or cash prove to be the move. Only time will tell. Smoothed ATR on a weekly timeframe used.

mcrobbie

We have begun a new paradigm. Using a smoothed ATR on the weekly timeline, it is now clear that the rules of the past 2 years no longer apply. Looking to see how this shakes out with raised rates, and energy insecurity. Battle between holding equities or cash will be determined by inflationary pressures vs. market sentiment. Hold on to your butts.

mcrobbie Updated 

Look for a drop from these levels again, although retrying the top trendline entirely possible.

mcrobbie Updated 

Pull back from top trendline, will test supports on the way down. VIX building steam and trigger issues in the news could spell a bigger correction. Good news on the horizon, however, household savings are up.... Might be a great summer. Keep eyes on oil, Crypto recovery, Russian aggression.... also fading cannabis enthusiasm and tobacco legislation.

mcrobbie Updated 

SPY has found the top of the ascending wedge it's been following since it exited the last correction in November. I expect it to make it's way back down to find new support. RSI overbought on almost all timelines.

mcrobbie

All longer-term trendlines hit. Reasonable to assume pullback imminent.

mcrobbie

I picked up $230 calls, and so should you.

mcrobbie

In on cheap $40 puts... you should be too.

mcrobbie

The trendline shows if you draw from the fallout of Dot-Com/2001 bottom to 2008 top and extend, it reaches here and now. What it means, you tell me.

mcrobbie Updated 

Spy has broken trendline (Green), if it can push below major support (Orange) -- down. 1st Target ~3800ish.

mcrobbie Updated 

After the breakout from Descending Megapohone, my target was hit. It is consolidating here and waiting for the next move. Bullish: Continues up from here following the upward broadening wedge, target would be 403-404. Bearish: Double top breaks back neckline, target: mid 370s. Watch to see if DXY has found bottom and rebound, if so I expect bearish movement....

mcrobbie

See linked idea to understand the target achieved. Target hit after upside break out of Descending Broadening Wedge. Either will rip to new ATHs or correct and large selloff. Decision time is upon us.

mcrobbie Updated 

In 60% of cases, a descending broadening wedge’s price objective (green bar) is achieved when the resistance line is broken... 40% chance of re-testing support of the channel, which would be long-term support. As we have been rejected off the resistance, could indicate another retest of support.

mcrobbie

A combination of indicators all show that this will likely be a hard week for $SPY