mljones

mljones

It tagged the level where stock to flow predicted a low, coming back strong, this looks like a bottom.

mljones Updated 

Stock to flow has a mid line near $7.1k which price tends to orbit around. I strongly expect price to return there especially with the halving coming up and miners nearly at capitulation even without the halving. Stock to flow also has a noise band around it and BTC price does sometimes explore to the edge of it. If it were to continue on in that direction you...

mljones

BTC market cap is $120B, its 24 hour volume is $53B, so almost half the entire market changed hands in one day. That means wait for a squeeze consolidation because it's still in redistribution. I do think this is a great dollar cost average area long but only after the volatility is decreased. I have a short bias intraday. I have my eye on hash ribbons to see...

mljones Updated 

Even with the bloodbath it is still mostly inside the corridor so the 4 year cycle hasn't been broken.

mljones Updated 

The closing hour today printed a type 2 wyckoff spring which means it tested support to a moderate depth compared to the selling climax and also moderate volume. This is bullish and means this more likely an accumulation zone than distribution however because it's a type 2 spring there are probably going to continue to be tests lower in the range to fully shake...

mljones Updated 

I've seen quite a few charts showing the 7600 tag as being the bottom of this impulse. This does not yet look like accumulation to me because the recent minor low at 6 am found relatively high volume. This means the shakeout is likely to continue downward until it makes a low with small volume indicating all of the weak money has transferred their accounts to the...

mljones Updated 

BTC looks like it can go a bit farther but I think it's going to be hard going expecting much more of a drop from BNB. The recent minor low had relatively little volume indicating the weak sellers may have been ejected from the market. This might be very close to the actual support level. It's hard to be bullish on this until after BTC is decisively bullish but I...

mljones Updated 

Looking for scalps short down to the 7200 area from here. 8400 would have been a more conservative area for it to reverse downward but this looks like it's starting the move back to the c. On the 1 hour ichimoku chart this forms a bearish pattern so I am watching for double top and squeeze type patterns for short to the green box area. I will be very bullish once...

mljones

This is a spot that looks like it has unfavorable RRR. The trend is down but the expected support/resistance line is up near the 3 point at 8400. I am not looking to take trades here except with very small risk because it will be hard to get a runner. A better plan is to wait for price to go either to the b or c. Short from b and look for bullish accumulation...

mljones Updated 

The ABC I had on the prior bullish impulse was not an ABC but confirmed to be a full 5 wave bearish impulse now that it has broken below the 3/C point at 8400. This means bias should be bearish until it reaches the prior support region near 7200 which is also the 1.618 extension of the 1 to 3 range on the bearish impulse. From there my plan is to watch for...

mljones Updated 

Euro is at top of a number of downward channel trend lines and is printing a megaphone pattern. This looks like distribution as the larger traders dump positions into the order book and widen its range. Selling from the top of the day here could be a very good swing position short. I also have a short bias intraday.

mljones Updated 

The most recent time BTC printed a megaphone pattern like this it took a while for it to break out cleanly, and only after a lot of stop runs and chop. This might be OK for tiny scalping but for larger swing trades long I will be waiting for accumulation below 9000 at least for the next few days.

mljones Updated 

On some time frames it looks like the recent megaphone is squeezing down for consolidation. However it's not clear if it's squeezing down because of bullish accumulation long or bearish accumulation of shorts (which is different from distribution). On the day chart ichimoku says it's in a green cloud which would indicate bullish choppiness. It has a support line...

mljones Updated 

It made a lower low and higher high which is forming a megaphone pattern at the end of a likely wxyxz. The upshot of this is it's likely an area where BTC is being distributed in the short term which widens the order book. I had a futures scalp from the other day which I have now closed and will wait for it to squeeze again which will show where it is being...

mljones Updated 

It's at the top of the channel and showing weakening on the day chart. It might chop around a bit intraday but overall will have a bearish bias on this at least until it shows strength near one of the median lines.

mljones Updated 

With the break above the Y point it's a lot more likely this is the start of an impulse or at least a choppy wxyxz that's in an upward channel and not just sideways. It's still not exactly clear where the prior C point of the ABC ends from the larger 5 wave impulse that stopped at 10k, so there are a couple combinations to keep track of to see what wave type...

mljones Updated 

I had a script find a signal and now that I am looking at what it did it appears to have found a 4 point which is my preferred spot to enter. It originally gave about a 6 RRR but I am at break even now with a target to take half off at the 1.618 and let the rest run. I would not have taken that trade without the script since I had manually plotted this pattern to...

mljones

Because we're coming out of consolidation from an ABC on the day chart, there are a couple ways to count the bullish exit impulses. Like I posted earlier about not overstaying your welcome on shorts, this would be a great place to keep the bulls from taking anything back if you're bearish. I'm thinking there will be much higher prices to short from relatively...