Off S1 above the 10ema and VSB = bad for equities..
Doesn't have to bounce here, but at S2 and looks like accumulation at this 15.50-15.60 area and now a higher low.
Selling climax -> ST in accumulation pattern. 17.06 entry on back test to 10 ema would get me in. Targeting 21.25 - Go out a few months in options..
This is one of my favorite short set ups. Where do I start? 1. Double top at R2 on monthly 2. 1.618 Trend fib ext. 3. LPSY ( Last point of supply) back test to the .764 fib retracement at ATH's 4. Money flow running away 5. RSI lower highs I can could go on all day, but those are my top 5. Pretty solid foundation..
At R2 on daiy and just below the 1.27 fib and outside upper bb. Rejected at previous resistance. Interesting last 3 candles including hammer and inverted hammer on increasing volume. Trading at the top of it's range.. Easy short, but could sneak a little higher. (Doubt it.)
Taking the low from 10/9/2013 to ATH's, I mirrored and flipped it. You see very similar price & time symmetry until March of this year. First time we've seen a major disconnect. Why? I think we all know the answer. Dropped in some fibs to provide levels and perspective. Last time encountered resistance, at .764 retracement, then sprung. Watch these levels.
This chart has my attention. Finding support at the .764 trend fib ext and is basing. Moreover, we see looking back that S1 usually marked the bottom. CCI oversold and turning up with RSI again finding support back to old level. CMF is also another key. You can clearly see, every time it bottoms, marks a move up. I would expect a move up in the dollar - about...
Above R3 on 4hr and appears to be LPSY. Bot May $38P's @.60
At R2 and .50 fib ext. could bounce a little higher AH then tank..
Obviously BOI on daily rejected at R1 and upper BB. Great short targeting $140.26 ( to be nice - I believe much lower.
Approaching S2 on daily and at the lower bb. We've seen massive selling into new lows w/ ~1.5x volume. UVXY has been crush compared to VIX. I included the VIX for comparison (the orange line). I think a reasonable target for UVXY is $37-$38 area in the not to distant future. Vix only down 8% while UVXY down -75.89% since Nov.. Noteworthy: OPEN GAP AT $52.96
Could be putting in an Island reversal here on daily above the 1.618 ext and approaching R3 below the 200 MA. Weekly bounce off S2. The ideal short would be at 50.46 which is the 61.8 retracement from the high. RSI at 76 and CMF is at 85.43 - warrants at least a pull back.. I would buy May $32P's and expect the trade to work within 1-2 days, if not, bail.
I think it's time to short it here. Into R2 and approaching the 1.618 fib ext. CL_F is about to tank.. Only reason for run up here. Buy May $62P's
TMUS is a short. Back into resistance in the down trend at the 61.8 retracement from high. $39.72 looks good. Tight stop if breaks above on vol.