This is not an exact science, because of time decay and let's just assume my ES target is correct. Based on those two assumptions, I think $48.39 will be the target.. Coincidentally, UVXY has a gap at $52.96. I'll be watching that level.
R2 on daily with open gap at 1861. Here's my downside levels. Pivots and fibs. ATH's to Feb low by June. My opinion only.
Needs to break above 18.84 to trigger VSB D#1 - at resistance now.
Above .764 fib retracement on daily and above R3 on 4 hr.. Bot: May 602.50P's @ 2.71
I believe this is an accumulation pattern. Volume is too high, which is bearish. There will be a secondary test. Minimum of S2, but 33.04 is possible, not probable. My .02
How are they going to trap anyone by dropping it during RTH's. I suspect hold support and drop it overnight. PAR SAR sell triggered on daily. Reality is, as big as a move as it feels, small in context.. I just have a different macro view of what to expect.
Secondary test below S3 and higher low. Ready to bounce.
Biggest single day move I could find was August 24th. +61.82% -- I won't be surprised to see a similar soon.
Critical level for the dollar at support. If support breaks, catalyst for ATH's. If holds, very bearish scenario. BOJ move was very interesting last night; however, I believe the pop was a supply test for the Yen and now the dollar is ready for mark up.. I expect the USD to take out the previous high..
IYT is ugly. Back in to supply test which is BOI and set for mark down.
I recognize this is a derivative of a derivative. Using TA and look back for commonalities. Approaching S2 which is the past, the probabilities of a bounce are higher. Approaching the 2.272 fib trend extension with RSI oversold but can go lower. We'll see. VIX:VXV ratio at extremes. I like the R/R here for a long. Also seeing large blocks and call buying in VXX...
At support with increasing volume and money flow. We saw huge UOA activity this week buying DITM calls..
Rejected at r2 and .764 ext - Island reversal set up with UTAD completing the distribution move..
Back at R1 with a island reversal set up..
At R2 and above 2 fib trend ext. Money flowing out and declining volume indicates smart $ distributing to retail with no new buyers. Market is being held up by slamming volatility at EOD.
At S2 and I believe targeting new high of 27.45 -- Long May $24C's at .49