According to the graph above, 487 days has been needed to reach the end of the bearish trend.... Let's remark that the most violent BTC pump occured in 2013 =)
Ripple could reach its moving average long term before fall again. The fibo cross a lot a pertinent point => improve probability of the scenario
Here is my feeling for the restart date of the cryptos... We are losing little by little the volatility, near to long term oblic support, most probable scenario according to me. Don't hesitate to argument in the comments if you not agree with that.
waiting a little bit before playing the next bearish wave. Scenario 1 more probable, waiting confirmation.
Don't forget that we are on a Bearish market... The R1 level is at 8070$, I will take my profits before @7800$ (the meeting between EMA(100) and the BTC curve).
We are on the last wave of the bursting of the bubble, the most longer one... Recovery around End-May/June for me .... Be patient =)
Here is my trading strategy for the next hours. Bullish until 9950$ (@+/-100$) et brearish after....
I make a zoom of my last analysis. As expected, we are in the wave 5 ....be patient ;)
A trend reversal is possible in the next hours. The RSI very low (1D timeframe) + the support area around 450$ improve the probability of a bullish phase. (until 580$ according to me).
it seems that the downtrend is losing momentum, be ready to pass in long position ;)
Here is me feeling for the next hours/days.
I redraw my last analysis by zooming inside the critical area. Once the resistance area reach, we have to monitor the eventual pull-back... Critical point : 8390$.
Be carefull of the zone around 8598$, it can be the begining of another bearish wave.
The XEM registered for 2 months a very bearish trend compared to the BTC, we approach soon to an important support around 2400 Satoshi. I think it is a good opportunity to increase its BTC quantity.. image.noelshack.com
the BTC broke 2 obliques resistance, next oblique support : 7722$. My analysis take into account the loss of market confidence following the recent events.
As we can see, converging triangle is forming, good feeling for the near future. I refill in XLM =)