Watch for a decent bounce from there to create a possible right shoulder, looks like timing for it to finish would be around the 8th - election day. I don't think it goes much lower before a bounce because the mid time frame rsi is already showing hidden bull divergences.
If yesterday was the top, I still expect a move up after fomc to about 3900+ and then drop to around 3700 over the next week or so (red path). If yesterday wasn't the top, a ramp up to almost 4k could be in the cards for the end of the week (yellow path). I think a breakdown after FOMC is more possible since the action overnight does not look like a reversal, but...
I don't think the C wave is done. On the sell off today the RSI on smaller time frames is already showing hidden bull divergences. Down to 3880 to touch the pitchfork fib would be my guess, but recovery and rally tomorrow either into FOMC or as a reaction to it to finish the C wave makes most sense. Under 3850 and the idea is wrong and we're probably going lower. Good luck
I've drawn the channel as if it completed on Friday, but it's interpretive and we can certainly make one more high today or tomorrow near 4k. Getting under 3870 and we'll be under the pitchfork fib support, in that case any test of 3890-3900 is a solid short opportunity with a tight stop. They held the pitchfork fib overnight, so the market is aware of it as an...
18ma on weekly and daily upper BB reached - a strong resistance area. I expect a pullback this week coming although floating above this level for a few days is possible. Any pullback for a few weeks will likely be bought and then we ramp up for the Santa rally to 4100 minimum. Pitchfork tells me the low for the year is in on ES, but the NQ could make a lower low...
getting close to an important pitchfork fib here, we may get a pullback and more. If we pullback we should find support around 3830 area and then go higher into next week. In case we break down below the channel (under 3780), the channel will act as resistance and we'll start making our way lower. Both options are listed just in case the unlikely (red path) plays out.
Sell down today for C wave I think and then rally up to finish the week. One more whipsaw up to 3860 could be first but I wouldn't trust any rally here. More solid confirmation of the sell off would be getting under under 3800. Good luck all!
Pullback from last night should continue today and maybe into tomorrow but I expect one more high still to 3900 area by end of week or Monday, likely with AAAPL earnings numbers. After 3900 resistance area (18ma on weekly is there as well) we may see a larger sell off. Under 3650 would be concerning for bulls. Good luck!
This area may see a pullback. It does look like a breakout above 3800 and I'm sure many are seeing that level as the level to hold. Any test of 3800 is an objective long. Getting Under 3770 would be under the pitchfork fib line and the likely target would be the 18ma again currently at 3690. I prefer waiting to see how the earnings go tonight with MSFT. Good luck all!
Technically everything looks good for a push to at least 3820, but the fast move up on Friday may pull back first or afterwards. The Dollar looks to be at support and BTC is telegraphing a large move soon - which way is hard to tell at the moment. Good luck!
Hang Seng looks to be in a C wave which means a bottom near 11000 support level is likely. After that flush I would say China is probably a long term hold, especially once it gets back over the monthly trendline. Monthly RSI is about to close at it's lowest levels ever.
All indexes lost the 18ma yesterday on that dramatic reversal - bearish. On /ES the 18ma is sitting at 3680 and any test of that level is an objective short. We also lost the pitchfork fib support, so I must lean bearish until both the 18ma and the pitchfork fib support (3700 more or less) is retaken. I do think at this point we will go lower into next week. I'll...
We tested the 18ma again (3680) yesterday and held it successfully. We came down to it overnight and held it again. This lines up with the pitchfork fib line and so I still lean bullish until both are taken out. Out of all the major indexes, only NQ is slightly under it's 18ma, and that may confirm over it today. A move above 3760 on an hourly close on ES will...
So we had the buyers come in yesterday where they should have and it certainly looked more bullish after hours. However, overnight we've sold down back to 3700 support area. I put a pitchfork on the chart to see if it lined up with price action and it has made the levels to watch clear. If we consolidate in this area and move up, it's bullish, if we break 3650,...
OK now we're clearly over the 18ma and 3700 - bullish. The weekly candle reversal "hints" were correct. Any dip today or tomorrow will likely get bought up. Maybe we retest the 18ma on daily again, if so I think it's a buy (3680-3700 area). Either way I expect the rally to continue to 3920 area into next week (that's the 18ma weekly). Daily BB is at 3814 so if we...
The pullback was expected but it could be larger than I originally thought. Right now the rally is in three waves, and that looks more like an A wave. Getting under 366 on spy will be problematic for bulls, right now they are holding but if they fail to hold it tomorrow this alternative is a possibility. Good luck!
Overview of MA's and BB support and resistance on the ES Futures. We've held the monthly, weekly and daily BBs, the Monthly 50ma, and the weekly 200 ma. I'm leaning bullish for the week but a sell off first is entirely possible and then we have to get over the daily 18ma sitting at around 3690. Good luck!
Although I became progressively bearish today, the weekly close is a spinning top - an indecision candle. With the previous weekly inverted hammer, and the ES structure still holding, the next week "may be" bullish, but nothing will be confirmed until the daily starts holding above the 18ma (currently sitting at about 3700). We were above it today at open and then...