All in the video, I expect some kind of retrace before further move up after a retracement, but at the same time a fast move up like this can be a C wave - so I talk about both scenarios.
Expecting one today as futures look to be forming the B leg. C leg down to 3630-3600 area is likely a buy but it also may not get there. Next week should be positive. Good luck!
The failed to hold the channel trendline, so it's looking bad for bulls. A quick update on what I'm seeing with the structure on SPX, SPY and the VIX.
CPI at 8:30 and with it probably a large move. Best to wait and see how the dust settles. A move down after a pop up likely gets us to the daily and weekly BB area - 3530-3500. A pop above the green channel and hold would be bullish, but we would have to wait for a 4 hr close to make sure it's not a bulltrap. I have no idea which may happen but I would nibble if...
I know it may seem like a joke, but actually 4.20-4.30 area is the resistance point for TLRY, over that and it could be a very large move up. Good luck
With the economic news today (PPI at 8:30 and Fed minutes at 2pm) tomorrow (CPI and jobs data at 8:30) and then earnings starting Friday it may continue to be choppy. There are other possibilities, but two are shown - Over 3700 with a 4 hour close would be bullish (green arrow) A rejection at the green channel trendline may get us down to the weekly BB around...
Head and shoulders on USO (proxy for USOIL) says 50 is the target. After creating a strong head and shoulders pattern, we came back slightly above the neckline - typical overshoot. Now we're making our way down again. Bounce in oil is likely over. This idea is incorrect if we get over 81.
Downtrend looks to be over, Price should not be getting under 3560 for a while. My target from the previous structure is around 3900 depending on how much time it takes. A safer entry would be after 3700 is held and a backtest of the previous channel (green line), yellow arrow path is expected as of now. Good luck and good trading
Just some ideas on recent bear markets and what to look out for during "bottoms". Although I think we could have a decent rally soon, I think the bottom of this particular bear market may still be far away. Some thoughts on 2007-9 bear market, 2000 bear market, and 1987 crash.
Back to the daily structural support on futures (blue line) - I'm expecting a stronger reaction here (or slightly lower) now that we're in a wedge and the hourly bull divergence is steep. If they go lower for today it's not a huge problem, but I'd like to see this trendline hold by the weekly candle close. If they can't stay above the trendline (which is also...
I forgot bonds - also looking bullish this morning. All notes in the video but here's a recap - SPX breakout from wedge looks bullish, USOIL probably higher, Gold higher esp if the USD keeps falling. Dollar may get down to 107 but it should take some time, BTC rally to 22k at least if the markets rally but maybe more once that market wakes up, Wheat is still...
I've made a few posts over the weekend explaining why I think a rally from here (or close to here) is possible. We are going to open the week above last weeks close. For an inverted hammer candle to gain some traction as a reversal signal, that's a checkmark for bulls. The 4hr time frame has hidden bullish divergence which should also not be ignored. The key...
I was noticing how many were bemoaning the weekly candle - "so bearish", "buyers gave it all up" etc. So I decided to look up the candlestick pattern and see how it's interpreted - here's a link (one of many out there) commodity.com As you can see, an Inverted hammer can often signal reversal patterns. Considering we are at Weekly 200ma support, Weekly BB...
Everything in the video I also talk a bit about market psychology and why it's problematic to think the "news" is the cause of price movement.
Tested channel after 8:30 numbers. A hold today and rally would be very bullish a fail underneath and a retest of the channel from underneath would likely be bearish. No decision until after cash opens and even then expect a lot of trickery. PUT/CALL is bearish so another swing up would not surprise me but I'm going to let price action decide.
All in the video, basically bears are in control as long as we're under the green channel trendline (which failed today), bulls are in control above it. Possible megaphone pattern may come into play. I believe the bottom for this year will be around the 3-4th week of October.
Yesterday I noted that we ended with a hanging man candle under the daily 18ma. Under the daily 18ma, the bias is down and with a hanging man candle it may be a hint of a reversal. The paths I'm thinking are possible are shown. I personally still think we will end the week under 3700 and the weekly candle will look like a false breakout, but I will not short until...
SPX is bullish over 3750, bonds I can't tell what is going on there but under 125 would be bad for bulls, Wheat, looks good still in channel, Gold also looks good although the dollar may rally again to 116, BTC could drop hard but it would be a buy for me. GOod luck