Some ideas going into next week. Keep in mind FOMC is next week and depending on the position of the market we could rally regardless of what Powell says. 3900 is strong support for a number of reasons so if it breaks on a weekly close it's a big deal. I also discuss AAPL and Oil a little bit. Good luck and have a wonderful weekend
All in the video, I tried to do it quick to give you an idea of what I think is important today. Holding 3940 on this chart is very important for bulls, getting under very important for bears. May be very tricky with the daily 18ma still not reached. Be careful of bull and bear traps.
All in the video, one more down for USOIL looks correct and then a rally up to test 18ma on week/monthly charts. Long term is fuzzy, but 70 is a level bulls want to hold for sure into next year. Good luck!
Another wedge structure like last week, and like last week, we broke out of it overnight. A retest of 3900-3980 with Jobs numbers at 8:30 and then pump on open is what I'm thinking, but it doesn't mean it's GOING to happen. I do like the idea of testing the daily 18ma currently sitting around 4k - this would be one way to get there. Good luck!
All in the video, very simply bulls want to at least hold 3900 for the week to keep the weekly 18 ma bias in the bullish camp. Even better for bulls would be recapturing 4k which would get us over the daily 18ma again. Bears want to see the weekly 18ma at 3900 break and hold under for the week, but a test of the daily 18 at 4k and rejection would be an ideal...
Purely technical analysis of TLT, ZB and TYX. My feeling for months is that Bonds will outperform the general markets. It's possible that we've peaked in TYX and TLT could rally towards 120 and higher. TLT/SPY ratio charts also explored Good Luck!
SPX sold off Friday and I prematurely stated that the top "may be in". Well, by the end of the day the fast down move from futures had been mostly erased - another example of the "never trust fast moves" rule. The SPX futures ended with a hanging man candle, so further selling into Monday or Tuesday is certainly possible, but with the slow stochastic fully...
Had to update my analysis as the breakdown today looks legit. Very possible that Friday was both a bear and bull trap and thus the hanging man candle on futures. If we get under the 18ma the daily bias will be down. Support is at 3940 (price shelf and 100ma) so I think buyers will step in there for a bounce, but under the 18ma and all bounces will be opportunities...
Keep in mind this is a monthly chart, so we're looking at years and decades here. This ratio chart of the HANG SENG INDEX divided by SPY is warning of a coming rush by investors into the Chinese markets. The China C wave I posted about may be done (see post attached below). If this falling wedge breaks out we could see a monumental shift towards the Chinese...
I was saying yesterday that it's possible the upmove is done and after today's economic numbers, it certainly looks that way at the moment. The move down from here would be negated if they get back over 4100. The weekly 18ma is at 3925 on /ES, so I expect a bit of support there, but probably not much before then. If we start a triangle for B, there should be a...
We had the impulse up so I would think we get a little more follow through today to reach the upper BB at about 4130. We've hit a weekly structural trendline but a day or two over it is no big deal if it breaks down next week. Also in the vicinity is the 50 weekly MA at 4135, so if the rally is going to stop anytime soon, that 4130 area (more or less) seems to be...
They broke over the wedge on futures, so I expect a retest and then higher. With Powell speaking today, a sudden spike down could occur but I still think the 18ma weekly and daily at about 3920-3900 would hold the price as support - no guarantees though. There's a gap on futures at 4020 which should get filled soon, from there it's possible we have ANOTHER move...
I see people laughing at Tom Lee's call of 4400 by the end of the year, and yes - I doubt the timing, but I don't doubt that the target is close to there. .618 fib from the top on SPX cash is 4320 and with a spike through 4370-4400 is possible. I think one more high to complete the current A wave is coming soon, maybe this week or next. Into Christmas we...
4 hr rsi is on the floor again which is suspicious to me. We are still above the 18ma daily and 18ma weekly - both indicate a bullish bias and both are near the 3920 area. A small pullback this morning/today to those MA's may get bought in anticipation of Powell's speech tomorrow - or in reaction to it. Index put/call is slightly elevated. ycharts.com Good luck!
I believe AAPL is forming a wyckoff distribution top, very similar set up to IWM in 2021. Therefore, I expect big tech to have a nice rally into next year after this pullback finishes. AAPL support is around 137-135 area, so that's where I'd like to buy it if I can. I hope you enjoy the video!
A new idea is presented now that we're out of the downtrend pitchfork. The basic idea is this - we should get a pullback and then rally up to about 4300 by mid to late January. I could be totally wrong, but with the gaps above and the confluence of technical indicators around that level, I'm betting that will be the case. In other markets this week, Oil still...
Everything included in the video, I do think a turn lower is likely on these markets, but without as many market participants as usual we could have whipsaw reactions for a day or two. A sell down on the half day Friday would especially be bearish for Monday as traders who are long and away from trading will be trapped. Good luck for the rest of the week and...
It could be a false breakdown and If so, we should see a rally soon over 16500. If not, the traditional bear pennant target would be about 10500 area. That would be a very large move, so it would likely be tied to another news event and margin calls. Good luck!