Had to update my analysis as the breakdown today looks legit. Very possible that Friday was both a bear and bull trap and thus the hanging man candle on futures. If we get under the 18ma the daily bias will be down. Support is at 3940 (price shelf and 100ma) so I think buyers will step in there for a bounce, but under the 18ma and all bounces will be opportunities to short, probably into Christmas. Good luck!
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i use the term "hammer candle" but in fact the correct term is "hanging man" - they look similar, but have different meanings at a bottom or top. www.investopedia.com...dlestick-pattern.asp
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they held the 18ma for the day. Bears want to see it break overnight and then test in the morning, that would be an ideal area to short - will update tomorrow...
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Futures have held the 18ma overnight. Any push up will run into the 10 and 200ma, so right now we are stuck in between support and resistance. An hourly close under the 18ma would be a sign that the bears are taking over, confirmed if a 4 hour candle closes under it.
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3940 would be support if we break below the 18ma
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we are coiling at smaller time frames, at open we may pop up but I think many are expecting that, so it could be we just sell down hard to 3940 area.
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we're getting close to the shelf of support but it could get down to 3900 if they push hard.
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18ma has been lost, bias is now down. A bounce to test it in a day or two would be a short opportunity
