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NZD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The NZD remains a tricky currency to pin down. Fundamentals that should have provided support over recent months haven’t, and the country’s lower terms of trade has made it the biggest loser among the high betas during recent weeks. The RBNZ stuck to the same script in their meeting this past week, disappointing...

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GBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE A looming recession has been a key source of Pound weakness and has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE hikes. But there is a new threat in focus. It seems the PM’s new fiscal plan, even though putting downside pressure on inflation and lowering growth risks, has drastically increased debt concerns....

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USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing acceleration in August, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. The bank made its third 75bsp at the Sep meeting and pushed up their 2023 terminal rate projection to 4.6%. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance,...

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EUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE Inflation >9% saw a 75bsp ECB hike in September. Post-meeting sources noted the bank is planning to discuss QT at their October meeting. The President showed more communication tact by not giving any clues on estimates for the terminal rate. On spread fragmentation, the bank didn’t provide any new info or...

thunderpips

NZD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The NZD remains a tricky currency to pin down. Fundamentals that should have provided support over recent months haven’t, and the country’s lower terms of trade has made it the biggest loser among the high betas during recent weeks. The RBNZ stuck to the same script in their meeting this past week, disappointing...

thunderpips

GBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE A looming recession has been a key source of Pound weakness and has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE hikes. But there is a new threat in focus. It seems the PM’s new fiscal plan, even though putting downside pressure on inflation and lowering growth risks, has drastically increased debt concerns....

thunderpips

USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing acceleration in August, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. The bank made its third 75bsp at the Sep meeting and pushed up their 2023 terminal rate projection to 4.6%. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance,...

thunderpips

EUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE Inflation >9% saw a 75bsp ECB hike in September. Post-meeting sources noted the bank is planning to discuss QT at their October meeting. The President showed more communication tact by not giving any clues on estimates for the terminal rate. On spread fragmentation, the bank didn’t provide any new info or...

thunderpips

NZD – The New Zealand dollar perked up on Wednesday after the RBNZ raised interest rates as expected and doubled down on its resolve to contain runaway inflation. Commenting on the meeting, Westpac noted: “The consideration of a 75 by move – given it could reduce the risk of a higher peak in the overall OCR cycle – suggests the RBNZ is now eyeing a considerably...

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AUD – The Australian dollar lost ground on Tuesday, having rallied sharply overnight, after the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a smaller-than expected rate hike, even as central banks elsewhere are raising rates aggressively. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia, which had predicted the 25 basis points move, expects the central bank to hike by another 25 bps...

thunderpips

GBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE A looming recession has been a key source of Pound weakness and has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE hikes. But there is a new threat in focus. It seems the PM’s new fiscal plan, even though putting downside pressure on inflation and lowering growth risks, has drastically increased debt concerns....

thunderpips

EUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE Inflation >9% saw a 75bsp ECB hike in September. Post-meeting sources noted the bank is planning to discuss QT at their October meeting. The President showed more communication tact by not giving any clues on estimates for the terminal rate. On spread fragmentation, the bank didn’t provide any new info or...

thunderpips

USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8%, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. The bank made its third 75bsp at the Sep meeting and pushed up their 2023 terminal rate projection to 4.6%. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and...

thunderpips

GBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE A looming recession has been a key source of Pound weakness and has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE hikes. But there is a new threat in focus. It seems the PM’s new fiscal plan, even though putting downside pressure on inflation and lowering growth risks, has drastically increased debt concerns....

thunderpips

EUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE Inflation >9% saw a 75bsp ECB hike in September. Post-meeting sources noted the bank is planning to discuss QT at their October meeting. The President showed more communication tact by not giving any clues on estimates for the terminal rate. On spread fragmentation, the bank didn’t provide any new info or...

thunderpips

GBP – Sterling rallied across the board on Wednesday as the Bank of England purchased £1.025 billion of UK government bonds. The BoE stated it would buy as many long-dated bonds as was needed until October 14th to stabilize UK markets. Summarising the day’s moves, Wells Fargo stated: “You had financial stress everywhere. The yields were rising and the dollar...

thunderpips

GBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE A looming recession has been a key source of Pound weakness and has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE hikes. But there is a new threat in focus. It seems the PM’s new fiscal plan, even though putting downside pressure on inflation and lowering growth risks, has drastically increased debt concerns....

thunderpips

GBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE A looming recession has been a key source of Pound weakness and has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE hikes. But there is a new threat in focus. It seems the PM’s new fiscal plan, even though putting downside pressure on inflation and lowering growth risks, has drastically increased debt concerns....