New low or not, still looking for a bottom. If nothing else but basing it on the EXTREME level of BTCUSDSHORTS. We have never seen these levels. Bears are all-in!!!
Orange line is BTCUSDSHORTS
Everything is screaming that a bottom is near or in place.
IF it can hold up in time with the Ending Diagonal I think is playing out in BTC...which could have a couple/few days left until completion.
This COULD be a small Ending Diagonal for wave C of (2)...we need to hold the previous low where proposed wave (1) started.
This is just a general idea of where I think we are in the move up in BTCUSD. The main area being targeted is between $65K-$150K, although I need to see the first wave up (to nearly a new high of $20K) and down from around where we are now ....a 1/2 to project 3,4 and 5 (not to degree).
Orange line is BTCUSDSHORTS, the number of open leveraged short positions. At ...
We have only had 3 waves down. There is positive divergence on Awesome Osc, MACD (not shown) also crossing up, or nearly so.
1. Red: The bottom is in and we have a (1)/(2) up. The depth of wave (2) was deeper than preferred, but still within Elliott Rules. I would want to see above $4250 to rule out the next options. If this is the (1)/(2) scenario, then wave ...
IF the bottom is in, this is a possible scenario, first targeting the red area then the green, prior to a deep correction. Following this, and maintaining the last low, would give credence to the $5-24 target....expecting $14 over time.
The alt is, this 5 up was part of a 4th wave Expanded Flat, requiring one more low before making a lasting bottom. The reason I ...
A couple of ideas
1. We are in wave 4 circle and require one more move up to complete 5 up (primary count)
2. We have already completed 5 up and now are in the gray 2 circle with MUCH higher to go. (secondary count)
These projections are using log fib extensions.
This is just a H4 chart of what I think is nearing a bottom of this correction. A small amount of money here could bring in fortunes. We are closer to the end of a bear market than the beginning, even though the past few days make it feel otherwise. See long-term XVG post.
We should be nearing the end of a second wave down. The time frame of the move up is just a guess....considering we went from ~$0.03 to > $1 in about two months. The projections are using log Fib Extensions. If this is a third wave up, things could get interesting, fast. Looking at the osc at the bottom (positive divergence), even with all the poo poo re. cryptos ...