I believe the 5th wave is finally over and the c wave up is finally underway. Note the bullish macd divergence (3 vs 5). The c wave will be the final wave up to complete the large expanding diagonal since the cycle low at 152 Because of the deeper than expected wave b retracement the target may need to be adjusted to 378
I set it to 6 line so it will not give out false positive during the down trend. It is the first time it is showing a white turnaround line. a buy signal will follow and if there are 3 consecutive white lines that will confirm a bull trend
Wave b of 5 is complete. The 4th wave of c retraced 50% of wave 3 and the 5th wave of c traveled 61.8% of waves 1~3 which is quite typical. Wave c to 400 is in progress. Also, you can see macd divergence between waves 3 and 5.
I calculated BTC has a 12.2 week +- 2.5 cycle duration (low to low). It is week 10 since the last cycle low. We have a couple of weeks to make a high (408?) and set a cycle low.
I have created a constant width envelope around the market price action. It is similar to the traditional parallel channel but is more dynamic. Anytime the market move closer to the upper channel you know it is over bought and a move near the lower channel is good place to buy
market is trying very hard to hide this ending diagonal; i had to move (i) and (iv) to new position to keep this ED idea alive. you'll not notice with the naked eye that it is an ED unless you measure each correction. wave (v) should be shortest wave so it will stay above 255.37
Ending diagonal is nearly done. *BITFINEX does not display the expanding diagonal correctly; the length of 5th wave is shorter than it should be. BITSTAMP has the correct look.
I found this bars pattern from the recent past. I think it fits well as wave c of 5. Let's see how closely the market will follow
Wave b of a zigzag pattern should not retrace more than 61.8% of wave a. target: 398 - 408
It looks like the market found support at wave four of one lesser degree which is often the case. the b wave correction ends where wave c is equal to 138.2% of a. Wave c of 5 (up) should start soon to complete the expanding leading diagonal. wave c is often 161.% of wave a. that level is 414. I'm expecting the target for wave 5 to be between 408 - 414 (march 23-27?)
I moved wave a of 5 to 303.96. It makes more sense because of the macd divergence; (iii) vs (v). I'm ignoring the slight overlap due to leverage trading between waves (i) and (iv). I don't believe there is such an overlap at bitstamp (cash). It's possible a triangle is developing as wave b
I believe wave ((ii)) has completed with an expanding diagonal; retracing 70.7% of ((i)). market should resume uptrending soon.
I believe wave ((i)) of c has completed. wave ((ii)) likely to retrace 50%-61.8%.
b wave retracement was very shallow (~38.2%); indicates market strength. 5 vs 3 is nearly equal to c = a * 1.618. once you have more than one way of arriving at the same target it carries more weight. see you at 408
a triangle seems to be underway for wave b. i'm expecting a drop to ~252 once the triangle is done before resuming the uptrend to 400+
I believe wave a of 5 has completed the mini expanding diagonal pattern and managed to advance just above the minimum requirement for the fifth wave. I'm expecting wave b to retrace 50% (251) to 61.8% (242) of wave a, but that isn't a requirement; the correction can be shallow also. After some sideways price action wave c should get started with a target of 408...
I have relabeled waves a & b and the c sub waves. The c wave is still intact and channeling well. Wave (iii) is 161.8% of (i) which is quite typical. The wave ((v))/a prelim target is anywhere between 304 ~ 327. It's possible to narrow down the target once (v) covers some distance