After a series of bear candle pattern signals, today the mkt has closed below the May 15 swing high (light res becomed supp is now broken). Also unable to close decisively above upper side of rising channe and the dashed red line (weekly turncoat supp now res).
In the last sessions price has not been able to close above April res level.
Today bear engulf is another sign of highly probable trend change to downside.
Added to short positions.
Recent swing low as a 1st target.
Today bear harami could be a sign of top reversal
PRO
+ nice R:R
+ at res
+ stoch bear divergence
CONS
- possible uptrend move to Apr swing high before turning down
- 1st target is defined by yesterday low
PRO
+ back to back bear candle patterns
+ at rising res TL (bull channel)
CONS
- R;R not good considering the strong res now support in area 1.5100 1.5130
NOT a proper bullish pattern but the meaning should be the same: the bulls are taking control again.
PRO
+ bullish long white candle "engulf" prior black one
+ at turncoat support
+ at rising supp TL
+ H&S target still in place
CONS
R.R not so good if we take into account the recent high as a possible target
Yesterday candle pattern at res was a good signal for entering short.
Today additional confirmation has increased the probability for safer short positions.
PRO
+ back to back bear candle patters
+ today candle can be considered as a part of a not so perfect but "tradable" falling 3 methods pattern
+ today close is below the recent swing low
+ has closed...
The bull are loosing energy:
PRO
+ bear candle patter at resistance
+ none of the last 9 sessions has been able to close above res defined by dark cloud cover
+ price has closed lightly below ema
+ stoch bear divergence
CONS
- possible descending TL now could act as supp
- SMA 200 is at the same level of TL
- R:R not so attractive in the near term
Another sell opportunitiy but with a not well defined technical scenario:
PRO
+shooting star at res (dark cloud cover).
+ nice R:R
+ descending res TL not so far
CONS
- shooting star is almost at a turncoat supp level (evening star)
- upper TL of a former descending trend channel may act as a supp
PRO
+ side by side bull patter
+ 1st res is near the level defined by the long lower shadow of June 05 bull pattern
+ bull stoch divergence
CONS
- we are buying at res (be careful, only light positions...)
- other res levels in zones .3640 .3670 .3730
- sma 200
PRO
+ side by side bear candle patterns confirming res (bear engulf)
+ also rising res TL in place
+ below ema 200
+ nice R:R
+ light stoch bear divergence
CONS
-old supp now res (end 2013) just few pips above current res level
-recent swing high can provide supp (dashed line)
-body of the candles are quite small
-not a so strong signal that the bear want to take...
Not a perfect setup for shorting:
PROS
+ a couple of high wave candles approaching a not clearly defined res level
+ 2 bear candle patterns in the last recent sessions (first signs of a possible trend reversal?)
+ at descending res TL
+ unable to close decisively above .38 fib level
CONS
- ema is still pushing up price
- res level is weak, stronger level is in...
PRO
+ back to back bullish patterns
CONS
- we are buying at turncoat resistance (unable to close above res in the last 8 sessions), so it is quite dangerous
- the ema is still capping the price nicely
- a late february swing low is not so far from the recent low.
- there is still space for another down move before finding a quite strong support
- price below sma...
Another light sell confirmed by a Bear Pattern at descending resistance TL. A close below the recent low will probably mark a more pronounced drop in the coming sessions. As possible targets all the next support levels.
Added to short already in place.
Possible supp zones to deal with in the short term, the most important are: the last swing low and the turncoat support just below (light blue rectangle).
Better pay attention to possible developments of particular bull candle patterns in the coming sessions.
Yesterday candle was unable to close under supp.
Today bull pattern at supp (turnacoat res + descending channel + rising supp line) is a trigger for a "light" buy.
I added to my prevoius long positions.
