I was bullish for USD...until the last FOMC meeting in september. Since then things went from good to worse for the greenback as we all know. JPY although seems like it still has the "safe haven" status it used to have in previous years. In fact it has always been a safe haven despite every easing act of the ...
Finally we got the 1,5950-1,5900 correction zone checked, now GBPUSD shold head north in case it wanted to continue its recent uptrend. I go long for today, closing the position at 12:00 EST (16:00GMT) no matter what!
Based on London morning price action, GBPUSD should rise until 12:00EST (16:00 GMT). I had to change my mind and give up on chasing 1,5950 (my previous GBPUSD idea). I have my stop in BE on that short position.
We expect more rate cut on the 24th. The range is clear, we are at the bottom of the recent channel. EURHUF usually respects that. We play the long with options as we do not want to pay financing. In case we got it wrong we sell the spot at 293,50 to hedge the cost & loss of the vertical option. Expiry: 2nd of October
Even though we had an awful FOMC for USD bulls, we got an awful retail sales data this morning for GBP. I expect the GBPUSD to trade back to 1,5940-1,5890 in 2-3 days. Probably the Fed speakers scheduled for Friday will also help this move as they will no doubt try to counter-balance Bernanke's words.
GBP could be hurt today by CPI and tomorrow by BoE minutes. In parallel I do not expect deteriorating EUR data this week. 0,8575 and 0,8535 are good entries for long. COntinue to hold bullish bias until above 0,8450. Expecting 0,89 and 0,90 in coming 2-3 weeks in case it got above 0,87 again.
Seems so AUD can rally 150-200 points against USD and EUR as the RBA was not as dovish 2 days ago as the market expected. No mention of further rate cuts. I still believe they will cut more later this year or in Q1 2014 but for now AUD is way too oversold.