Swing Trade: Looking to short GBPUSD on price bounce. USD is expected to strengthen going into the Employment Data release. GBP is expected to weaken as PM Theresa May mentioned that she will trigger formal Brexit talks by end of March 2017. Levels to watch: Support: 1.2934, 1.2870 & 1.2830 Resistance: 1.3125, 1.3165 & 1.3208
WTi is retreating, supporting a bull move in USD, while Yen is being pressured by Kuroda's comment during the weekend about cutting interest rate. Kuroda is scheduled to speak at BoJ's FinTech Forum tomorrow, and any comment from him is expected to be bearish for Yen. Technical: Price is expected to test the 38.% fibo level to the upside.
Market is discounting a possible production freeze deal at an informal OPEC Meeting in Algeria next month. Iraq's entry into the market last week added 70,000 barrel daily to the market as there is no evidence of any increase in demand for crude. Price is expected to test 78.6% fibo level (48.97) to the downside.
Putting a limit to short EURUSD. Entry 1.1400 SL 1.1610 Target 1.050 Fundamentally: ECB in Easing stage due to QE, Feds in Tightening stage Sentiment: Though FOMC Meeting Minutes was seen as dovish, looking at the details of the minute shows that the risk to US Economy globally (China, Crude, Brexit) has subdued.
EUR/USD tested the DMA 100 at 1.1230 level on a US Dollar weakness rally that continued from last week, before it fell on Wednesday. A strong US Employment data saw the pair moved lower to DMA200 level. Looking at the sentiment: EURO is expected to print lower reading as the market is waiting for a reaction from ECB after the pre-emptive BOE actions. Bund yield ...
BOE made a pre-emptive move by cutting key policy rate and adding to its monetary base. As most of these action are priced in, market is looking for more data to gain confidence in shorting GBP. Looking at the sentiment: The outlook is bearish for Pound, but whether a further move down is warranted pretty much depend on data releases.