Charted above is the monthly US dollar index. Some things to note about the chart:
1) The index is currently sitting right below a downward trend line going back to the 1985 high (white line). It has yet to break this trend on a closing monthly basis.
2) The current level is also sitting on the 38.2% re-tracement of the 2001 to 2008 decline.
3) And finally, current levels are sitting right below a trend line (blue) that has been important since the 1970's.
4) Monthly RSI is sitting near 72, and in order to break out above the resistance levels noted above, possible a period of consolidation (weeks/month) or short counter trend rally is due. However the previous two larger rallies that took the index above the middle blue trend line both started with overbought monthly RSI's. Breaking this trend in both instances lead to long multi year (3-4) rallies for the index.
5) Extending the upper blue trend line give us a possible target for what could be the next multi year rally in the index. Those targets if followed similar time paths of previous rallies would put the index somewhere around 110-112 in late 2017 to mid 2018.
Summary:
Short term consolidation on a daily or weekly level seems likely. Longer term, a break out above the middle blue trend line could lead to a 3-4 yr rally taking the index from 90 to 110. Or about 20-25% higher levels.
1) The index is currently sitting right below a downward trend line going back to the 1985 high (white line). It has yet to break this trend on a closing monthly basis.
2) The current level is also sitting on the 38.2% re-tracement of the 2001 to 2008 decline.
3) And finally, current levels are sitting right below a trend line (blue) that has been important since the 1970's.
4) Monthly RSI is sitting near 72, and in order to break out above the resistance levels noted above, possible a period of consolidation (weeks/month) or short counter trend rally is due. However the previous two larger rallies that took the index above the middle blue trend line both started with overbought monthly RSI's. Breaking this trend in both instances lead to long multi year (3-4) rallies for the index.
5) Extending the upper blue trend line give us a possible target for what could be the next multi year rally in the index. Those targets if followed similar time paths of previous rallies would put the index somewhere around 110-112 in late 2017 to mid 2018.
Summary:
Short term consolidation on a daily or weekly level seems likely. Longer term, a break out above the middle blue trend line could lead to a 3-4 yr rally taking the index from 90 to 110. Or about 20-25% higher levels.