Bitfinex Data:
The 20-day time and volume mode set up a 20-day rally and it reached it's conservative target. Usually after a long mode (20-bars is as long as you can have at one price before you switch to the next higher time frame), it will retest and build a new, higher mode, which will take some time. The market failed to make a new high after 5-days and that alerted you to weakness in the current uptrend. Once the uptrend time expired yesterday, we then look at the next trend to take over.
There is a Weekly Uptrend still in effect, and the current pullback is a retest of the mode at 240-235.
On a daily time frame: There is a downtrend that expires next Wednesday. The current pullback is a setup from a 6-day distribution (6-day mode) which has already dropped enough based on its distribution price range. Any rallies can be sold short (for very aggressive traders) for the next 4 days. Plan to cover shorts in 4 days when the current 6-day downtrend time expires. Longs can be initiated at the mode (+/- 1 average range) until next Wednesday's close. Risk is a drop of 1ATR (Average True Range) below the mode.
IDEALLY - Next Thursday you will see a break above a previous day's high to trigger a strong rally for the weekly trend to kick in. The upside target from that point in time would be a return to the 304+ and perhaps to 315 (January peak).
And weakness below 236 is a sign that the Monthly Downtrend is taking over AND the weekly uptrend would be failing AND the daily downtrend would kicking in, so going under 236 could lead to a massive selloff and a target of $166 (January low).
Cheers,
Tim 4:25PM EST March 19, 2015 254.19 last BTCUSD
The 20-day time and volume mode set up a 20-day rally and it reached it's conservative target. Usually after a long mode (20-bars is as long as you can have at one price before you switch to the next higher time frame), it will retest and build a new, higher mode, which will take some time. The market failed to make a new high after 5-days and that alerted you to weakness in the current uptrend. Once the uptrend time expired yesterday, we then look at the next trend to take over.
There is a Weekly Uptrend still in effect, and the current pullback is a retest of the mode at 240-235.
On a daily time frame: There is a downtrend that expires next Wednesday. The current pullback is a setup from a 6-day distribution (6-day mode) which has already dropped enough based on its distribution price range. Any rallies can be sold short (for very aggressive traders) for the next 4 days. Plan to cover shorts in 4 days when the current 6-day downtrend time expires. Longs can be initiated at the mode (+/- 1 average range) until next Wednesday's close. Risk is a drop of 1ATR (Average True Range) below the mode.
IDEALLY - Next Thursday you will see a break above a previous day's high to trigger a strong rally for the weekly trend to kick in. The upside target from that point in time would be a return to the 304+ and perhaps to 315 (January peak).
And weakness below 236 is a sign that the Monthly Downtrend is taking over AND the weekly uptrend would be failing AND the daily downtrend would kicking in, so going under 236 could lead to a massive selloff and a target of $166 (January low).
Cheers,
Tim 4:25PM EST March 19, 2015 254.19 last BTCUSD
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