$COMP | Another 275 Weeks Of Ramped Up Rally Ending Next Month?
Friends,
Following a dead-on hit target @ 5786.81 defined last October 30th 2013 (see links below), we evaluated each impulses that preceded the recent two historical major market retracement - Following are (circa) dates, impulse lengths in weeks and percentage retracements:
1 - NOV 1994 to FEB 2000 / Approx. 275 weeks / 61.8% retrac.
and
2 - MAR 2003 to JUN 2008 / Approx. 278 weeks / 93.5% retrac.
As the current Fed-engorged impulse nears that 275-day moment, question is whether this period has any significance, and whether it is about to repeat itself into another significant decline.
Historical bursting-bubble analyst have already project significant abysmal retracement projections, one most notorious is Mr. Harry S. Dent, Jr, author of several demographic based predictions that occurred with quite impressive precision outcomes. In essence, he believe that all bubbles burst, and all bubbles revert to an initial growth trendline from which the bubble was born - In the chart, the trendline is arguably drawn in yellow, although a gentle trendline might also act as a supportive target. In such case, we would be seeing DOW Composite values between 2425 to 2800, if his theory turns out to be true.
In any case, the main interest here is to merely highlight what remains to be proven, which is a 175 to 178 week cycle of ramped up prices, followed by a major depressive decline that historically retraced over 2/3 of historical gains.
Then again, the market (Fed, really) may have resources that could far surpass the time any single counter-trend investor may be willing to endure, especially in such artificial market.
Worth keeping in mind, though.
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
PS: Following are links to:
1 - Original $COMP forecast:
-
2 - Successful Target Hit:
-
3 - Additional 275-Week chart comment:
-
www.tradingview.com/u/4xForecaster/
---------------------------------------------
Follow my analysis, forecasts and signals on Twitter.
- Alias: @4xForecaster
----------------------------------------------
Following a dead-on hit target @ 5786.81 defined last October 30th 2013 (see links below), we evaluated each impulses that preceded the recent two historical major market retracement - Following are (circa) dates, impulse lengths in weeks and percentage retracements:
1 - NOV 1994 to FEB 2000 / Approx. 275 weeks / 61.8% retrac.
and
2 - MAR 2003 to JUN 2008 / Approx. 278 weeks / 93.5% retrac.
As the current Fed-engorged impulse nears that 275-day moment, question is whether this period has any significance, and whether it is about to repeat itself into another significant decline.
Historical bursting-bubble analyst have already project significant abysmal retracement projections, one most notorious is Mr. Harry S. Dent, Jr, author of several demographic based predictions that occurred with quite impressive precision outcomes. In essence, he believe that all bubbles burst, and all bubbles revert to an initial growth trendline from which the bubble was born - In the chart, the trendline is arguably drawn in yellow, although a gentle trendline might also act as a supportive target. In such case, we would be seeing DOW Composite values between 2425 to 2800, if his theory turns out to be true.
In any case, the main interest here is to merely highlight what remains to be proven, which is a 175 to 178 week cycle of ramped up prices, followed by a major depressive decline that historically retraced over 2/3 of historical gains.
Then again, the market (Fed, really) may have resources that could far surpass the time any single counter-trend investor may be willing to endure, especially in such artificial market.
Worth keeping in mind, though.
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
PS: Following are links to:
1 - Original $COMP forecast:
-
-
-
www.tradingview.com/u/4xForecaster/
---------------------------------------------
Follow my analysis, forecasts and signals on Twitter.
- Alias: @4xForecaster
----------------------------------------------
