Let's go back to June 2007. What do you see? Yes, the credit bubble that exploded scare the hell out of investors and they parked their money in 20-years Treasury Note.
After QE 1 was launched at Dec 2008, this ratio run into a downtrend channel as "risk-appetite" was coming back due to free money from the sky.
Since Jan 2014, this ratio has hit the same bottom ratio AGAIN and consolidating into a symmetrical triangle pattern. Now, the existence of that long tail candle which i would consider it as very early bullish indication of what is coming, instead of a shooting star.
Technically, the price will either break out downside or upside around 2/3 of the triangle.
Anticipate the following scenarios:
1. Either the ratio will test triangle bottom or even false break down, which will give a RSI bullish divergence for uptrend
2. Or price would just flow nicely with the 8ema to challenge the channel top.
Note: RSI has broke out of long term downtrend resistance line
After QE 1 was launched at Dec 2008, this ratio run into a downtrend channel as "risk-appetite" was coming back due to free money from the sky.
Since Jan 2014, this ratio has hit the same bottom ratio AGAIN and consolidating into a symmetrical triangle pattern. Now, the existence of that long tail candle which i would consider it as very early bullish indication of what is coming, instead of a shooting star.
Technically, the price will either break out downside or upside around 2/3 of the triangle.
Anticipate the following scenarios:
1. Either the ratio will test triangle bottom or even false break down, which will give a RSI bullish divergence for uptrend
2. Or price would just flow nicely with the 8ema to challenge the channel top.
Note: RSI has broke out of long term downtrend resistance line