Legal DISCLAIMER
All liability for risks resulting from investment transactions or other asset dispositions carried out by the reader based on information received or market analysis is expressly excluded by this analyst. All the information made available here is generally provided to serve as an example only, without obligation, and without specific recommendations for action. It does not constitute and cannot replace investment advice. Therefore, the analyst recommends contacting your financial advisor before making specific transactions and investments.
This idea may contain instruction/suggestions for short-selling an instrument. This analyst considers short-selling Haram(forbidden by the laws of Islam); therefore, any trade taken suggested in this idea, the analyst will bear no responsibility, in this world or the hereafter.
Introduction
Following is a price movement analysis. It discusses scenarios that may occur soon. This also discusses suggestions for the trading strategies for each likely scenario. Based on this analysis, many ideas will be published, detailing trading strategies for each likely scenario.
Background
2222
is a specialized oil company; its share price usually fluctuates with the oil price. With the current agreements regarding oil production, oil prices are rising.
2222
share price, after reaching an all-time high of 42.5 on the 16th of May 2022, in decline for 59 days, losing 14.77% of its value.
The decline follows a trendline (blue color line) that the market tested more than three times last month. Price action tested the trend line on the 7,9,19,20 and the 30th of June 2022 (thumbs up icons).
Current Situation
A Bullish Kicker was observed yesterday (the 17th of June 2022) along with a confirmation candle the next day.
Scenario 1: Price action follows the trendline
As the current trend line is tested multiple times, there is a possibility that the market will continue to observe and respect the trend line (Red Dotted Path under Trendline). If that is the case, then a trader should take scalping trades with the following considerations:
For Long Trades
For Short Trades
Scenario 2: Price action follows Trendline but breaks through the support level
The trendline has been respected for the last month, but the support line, although respected once, is possible that the price may fall through it, and the price action may trend downwards (Red Dotted Path breaking Support). If that is the case, no long trades are advised in this scenario. Before taking any such trade, the trader should wait for correct market conditions (like trend reversal or bullish candles at the bottom trend of the parallel channel). Meanwhile, a trader can take short trades with the following considerations:
For Short Trades
Scenario 3: Price action may "fakeout" of trendline without a follow-through
As happened earlier on the 31st of May 2022, the price breakout of the trend line(yellow circle at Resistance 4) but was later pulled back after facing resistance, indicating the lack of follow through. This can happen in this situation, too (Dotted Turquoise Path bouncing down at current Resistance Zone) due to the sharp rise in oil prices. But this breakout will likely be pulled back towards Support. If that is the case, then a trader should take scalping trades with the following considerations:
For Long Trades
For Short Trades
Scenario 4: Price action may breakout of Trendline with a follow-through breaking through Resistance Zone
The trendline has been respected for the last month, but the resistance zone that acted as a support zone prior 14th of January 2022 and later converted to a resistance zone was tested once on the 30th of June 2022. Therefore the price may rise through it, and the price action may trend Upwards (Torquise Dotted Path breaking through Resistance Zone). No short trades are advised in this scenario if that is the case. Before taking any such trade, the trader should wait for correct market conditions (like trend reversal). Meanwhile, a trader can take long trades with the following considerations:
For Long Trades
All liability for risks resulting from investment transactions or other asset dispositions carried out by the reader based on information received or market analysis is expressly excluded by this analyst. All the information made available here is generally provided to serve as an example only, without obligation, and without specific recommendations for action. It does not constitute and cannot replace investment advice. Therefore, the analyst recommends contacting your financial advisor before making specific transactions and investments.
This idea may contain instruction/suggestions for short-selling an instrument. This analyst considers short-selling Haram(forbidden by the laws of Islam); therefore, any trade taken suggested in this idea, the analyst will bear no responsibility, in this world or the hereafter.
Introduction
Following is a price movement analysis. It discusses scenarios that may occur soon. This also discusses suggestions for the trading strategies for each likely scenario. Based on this analysis, many ideas will be published, detailing trading strategies for each likely scenario.
Background
2222
is a specialized oil company; its share price usually fluctuates with the oil price. With the current agreements regarding oil production, oil prices are rising.
2222
share price, after reaching an all-time high of 42.5 on the 16th of May 2022, in decline for 59 days, losing 14.77% of its value. The decline follows a trendline (blue color line) that the market tested more than three times last month. Price action tested the trend line on the 7,9,19,20 and the 30th of June 2022 (thumbs up icons).
Current Situation
A Bullish Kicker was observed yesterday (the 17th of June 2022) along with a confirmation candle the next day.
Scenario 1: Price action follows the trendline
As the current trend line is tested multiple times, there is a possibility that the market will continue to observe and respect the trend line (Red Dotted Path under Trendline). If that is the case, then a trader should take scalping trades with the following considerations:
For Long Trades
- Entry must be taken upon the appearance of a bullish candle pattern at the Support Level, traditionally supported.
- Keep the TP level below the trendline
- Keep the SL level above the aforementioned Support Level.
For Short Trades
- Trader must take entry upon the appearance of a bearish candle pattern at the trendline.
- Keep the TP level above the aforementioned Support Level.
- Keep the SL level at the trendline.
Scenario 2: Price action follows Trendline but breaks through the support level
The trendline has been respected for the last month, but the support line, although respected once, is possible that the price may fall through it, and the price action may trend downwards (Red Dotted Path breaking Support). If that is the case, no long trades are advised in this scenario. Before taking any such trade, the trader should wait for correct market conditions (like trend reversal or bullish candles at the bottom trend of the parallel channel). Meanwhile, a trader can take short trades with the following considerations:
For Short Trades
- If the entry was not taken upon the appearance of a bearish candle pattern at the trendline, then the entry must be taken at Support Level + (ATR value/2).
- Keep the TP level at the low + 10 pips of the last Lower low, i.e., the Doji candle made on the 15th of March 2022.
- Keep the SL level at the trendline and later move to the latest Lower low.
Scenario 3: Price action may "fakeout" of trendline without a follow-through
As happened earlier on the 31st of May 2022, the price breakout of the trend line(yellow circle at Resistance 4) but was later pulled back after facing resistance, indicating the lack of follow through. This can happen in this situation, too (Dotted Turquoise Path bouncing down at current Resistance Zone) due to the sharp rise in oil prices. But this breakout will likely be pulled back towards Support. If that is the case, then a trader should take scalping trades with the following considerations:
For Long Trades
- Trader must take entry upon the appearance of a bullish candle pattern and a confirmation candle at the current Support Level.
- Keep the TP level below the resistance zone.
- Keep the SL level before the current support level and move to the latest Lower low.
For Short Trades
- Trader must take the entry upon the appearance of a bearish candle pattern along with a confirmation candle at the Resistance Level.
- Keep the TP level at the low + 10 pips of the last Lower low, i.e., the Doji candle made on the 15th of March 2022.
- Keep the SL level before the resistance zone and move to the latest Lower low later.
Scenario 4: Price action may breakout of Trendline with a follow-through breaking through Resistance Zone
The trendline has been respected for the last month, but the resistance zone that acted as a support zone prior 14th of January 2022 and later converted to a resistance zone was tested once on the 30th of June 2022. Therefore the price may rise through it, and the price action may trend Upwards (Torquise Dotted Path breaking through Resistance Zone). No short trades are advised in this scenario if that is the case. Before taking any such trade, the trader should wait for correct market conditions (like trend reversal). Meanwhile, a trader can take long trades with the following considerations:
For Long Trades
- If the entry was not taken upon the appearance of a bullish candle pattern at the support level, then the entry must be taken at Resistance Zone + (ATR value/2).
- Keep the 1st TP level below the Resistance Level 2
- Keep the 2nd TP level below the Resistance Level 3
- Keep the 3rd TP level below the Resistance Zone 4
- Keep the SL level at the trendline and move to the latest higher low later.