kodyshepherdpersonal

AAL broadening triangle and straddle trades

NASDAQ:AAL   American Airlines Group, Inc
Long-Term:

In the long-term I'm looking to trade what appears to be a broadening triangle correction pattern. AAL has pretty slow moving macro-trends so there is no rush for an entry though. Once the shorter-term patterns shows solid evidence of a bottom I'll enter a position looking to capitalize on the re-trace to the top of the broadening triangle with ~Feb2022 calls

Short-term:

The new SA COVID variant news offers significant selling pressure, so I'll be straddling AAL with more 12/17 expiries while AAL looks for a bottom.
Comment:
Trade closed manually: Closed both legs of trade at different times for $50 total profit

opened new trade:
2 18 calls for 12/3
1 17.5 put for 12/3 as hedge

Comment: Entered into another swing last night near market close, and got exactly the overnight setup I was banking on.

Entered on a bullish strap strategy:
2 $18 calls for 12/3
1 17.5 call for 12/3

This could turn on me pretty fast, so I'll be looking to have solid stop losses ready.

Comment: I forgot to update a bunch of short swing trades in between and honestly am a little too lazy to go through my trade confirmation logs right now. There were about 4 trades and all net positive with a profit around 350.

The past week price action as confirmed the expanding triangle correction pattern, and the price is currently sitting at a 30m support of ~18.50 with a resistance at ~19.5 and a gap in between.

If the 18.50 support holds, I'll be looking for a breakout to 19-19.50.

Around 3pm today I'll look at the technicals and and evaluate if there is a good trade setup for the a breakout.
Comment: expanding triangle

Comment: Going forward, if we do get a breakout from the expanding triangle, Ill be looking for a few bullish patterns to trigger longer term share trades:

Cup& Hangle:

Comment: Note of caution:

The uncertainty of the newest COVID strain, holiday spikes in new cases and more and more lockdowns is still very much in play. So, there could still be a longer term bearish outlook, especially since we are moving into the winter season in NA and travel will by cyclically lower.

The technicls also leave room for more downward movement if these forces cause lot of selling pressure. The current upward leg is going to hit a 4hr resistance that would fall in line with the expanding triangle trend line, and the 4hr momentum is definitely in the overbought range.

A rejection off this resistance could signify price drop to within the 15.50 range.


Comment: I made a mistake in the last update:

the 4h RSI is not overbought. I meant to say the 1Hr.