My $AAPL posts tend to be 40/60 (not in my favor) - but this one is a bit more simple. The 20-50-200 "death cross" to me is over-rated, because in a market as bullish as this one has been, there's too many speculators that seem determined to keep price above certain levels to avoid the most overly-used technical indicators to meet. With the exception of 2006, there hasn't been the false signals you'd see with other moving averages such as a 50-200 SMA (even with the false signal in 2006, -24% drawdown followed). On the chart setup I usually use - $AAPL has a bottom around $165, so I'm confident you won't see a break of that level without some type of re-trace ($183 expected, $193 high est. $205 max). Any one of those re-trace points (preferably $193) - hella nice opportunity to short. Buying the $165-$167 bottom wouldn't be a bad idea either, as long as you have a realistic target point. Nonetheless, avg drawdown after the (from the exact point of) MA crossover is -33.06% (NOT including DOT-COM Bubble). $140ish is a hell of alot closer than it seems (especially after seeing $FB). But that $120-$125 gap from 01/2017 is something I'd definitely keep in the back of my mind if 2019 offers that nice of a discount.
Comment:
Actually just to clarify - weekly support looks like $165-$163, so that should go to show just how weak the daily chart is. Would definitely be safer to see how price holds up around the $165-$167 range, though.
Trade closed: target reached:
Dope