NaughtyPines

STATISTICALLY SUCCESSFUL OPTIONS STRATEGIES -- PART IV

NASDAQ:AAPL   Apple Inc
THE IRON CONDOR:

The iron condor ( IC             ) is a defined risk options strategy that can consist of a short strangle enveloped by a long call at a higher strike price than the short call and a long put at a lower strike price than the short put or a short straddle enveloped by a similar long call/put setup and operates on the assumption that the price of the underlying will remain in a particular range for the duration of the trade. It can be skewed directionally or be neutral in disposition, and max profit is realized upon expiry if the price of the underlying remains within the range defined by the iron condor.

EXAMPLE: AAPL             Sep 4 112 Long Put/116 Short Put/135 Short Call/137 Long Call Iron Condored Strangle
POP: 70%
Max Profit: 88.00
Max Loss: 312.00
BE's: 115.12/133.88

AAPL             Sep 4 112 Long Put /124 Short Put/124 Short Call/137 Long Call Iron Condored Straddle

POP%: 51%
Max Profit: $569
Max Loss: $681
BE's: 117.81/130.19

Notes: From purely a probability of profit (POP) percentage perspective, long straddles, short straddles, and iron condored short straddles all have the lowest probability of profit, hovering around a little better than a coin toss to a little worse than a coin toss.

Moreover, from a purely practical standpoint, long straddles -- which operate on the assumption that price will move outside a specified range at some point in time and, ideally, prior to expiry -- require predictive capabilities that are beyond the vast majority of traders and, consequently, it is no surprise that long straddle trade setups are grossly and shockingly unprofitable over the long haul. See, Dough, "Market Measures", 6/25/15 and 7/14/15 Segments.
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