AAPL won't hit $200-A Monthly Analysis of my Reasoning
Everyone is calling for Apple to hit $200 but it won't get there this month and my predication is that it doesn't get there in 2022 either.
The chart above shows the monthly timeframe which provides a solid technical analysis viewpoint. Notice how the 5 year range that was created from 2012-2017 has shown Monthly Resistance over the last 15 months of trading. From a LT perspective, there are 4 measured moves that ended between 172-176; from a ST perspective we have 3 measured moves that end between 182-185. I don't think price goes above $182 because most traders look at short term measured moves at "small goals" with way too many traders thinking it gets to $200. From my perspective, I see the breakout of the 4 LT measured moves that occurred last week as an upcoming breakout failure that will show its hand this week. I see last week as creating the monthly "wick" come months end.
Another reason...think through DOGE & TSLA. Most people had sell orders for DOGE at $1 (and just under $1) because the headlines told us it would get there but, of course, it fell short of this target. At the end of October TSLA was going to $1,500 & maybe even $2,000 soon so way too many traders had sell orders at these prices.
In addition, and probably just a coincidence, but both DOGE & TSLA made final moves the 1st trading week of the month before falling the rest of the month and into the following months/month.
Below is the WEELKLY chart and what caught my eye here is the falling RSI and how last week the RSI touched the top of that trend line giving me another sign that taking a short position this week comes with good risk/reward.
My reasoning for calling this a top in Apple for a bit...think about the number of checks (all that free money) that were given to millions of people who could not afford Apple products prior to the pandemic as well as the millions that could. Those checks were a gold mine for Apple (and many other retailers) so unless you see another pandemic happening soon then consumer sales, IMO, created a parabolic top in 2021 that will be hard to beat in 2022, 2023 and quite possibility 2024.
My plan...short AAPL on Monday either pre-market or at open with a SL at $200 and a pre-defined risk of loss at .5% of my total capital.
The chart above shows the monthly timeframe which provides a solid technical analysis viewpoint. Notice how the 5 year range that was created from 2012-2017 has shown Monthly Resistance over the last 15 months of trading. From a LT perspective, there are 4 measured moves that ended between 172-176; from a ST perspective we have 3 measured moves that end between 182-185. I don't think price goes above $182 because most traders look at short term measured moves at "small goals" with way too many traders thinking it gets to $200. From my perspective, I see the breakout of the 4 LT measured moves that occurred last week as an upcoming breakout failure that will show its hand this week. I see last week as creating the monthly "wick" come months end.
Another reason...think through DOGE & TSLA. Most people had sell orders for DOGE at $1 (and just under $1) because the headlines told us it would get there but, of course, it fell short of this target. At the end of October TSLA was going to $1,500 & maybe even $2,000 soon so way too many traders had sell orders at these prices.
In addition, and probably just a coincidence, but both DOGE & TSLA made final moves the 1st trading week of the month before falling the rest of the month and into the following months/month.
Below is the WEELKLY chart and what caught my eye here is the falling RSI and how last week the RSI touched the top of that trend line giving me another sign that taking a short position this week comes with good risk/reward.
My reasoning for calling this a top in Apple for a bit...think about the number of checks (all that free money) that were given to millions of people who could not afford Apple products prior to the pandemic as well as the millions that could. Those checks were a gold mine for Apple (and many other retailers) so unless you see another pandemic happening soon then consumer sales, IMO, created a parabolic top in 2021 that will be hard to beat in 2022, 2023 and quite possibility 2024.
My plan...short AAPL on Monday either pre-market or at open with a SL at $200 and a pre-defined risk of loss at .5% of my total capital.
Trade active:
Short sold pre-market when Friday's measured move hit at 182.16; Short sold again 35 mins after market open. Average short position is $181.78. I have moved up my stop to $183.50. Why am I doing this...I felt strongly that AAPL needed to start reversing today when the market opened and so that gutt feeling was right and after this very bearish open it could quickly swing to $200 IF we reverse course so I'd rather not see gains turn into a bigger loss.
Comment:
After Monday's close I moved my SL to 183 on 100% of my position. What a whipsaw for AAPL over the last two days. Watching how it reacts to the 2 hr cloud to gauge 50% of profit but will take some profits between 166-168 unless I get stoped out prior.
Comment:
Added 25% to my short position
Trade closed: target reached:
Forgot to update that I took 50% profits on this short on the 20th when my initial short target was reached and then changed my SL to $173 when I realized a potential island reversal was forming on SPX. Currently no short position and felt we'd end the month below 173. Will see if that happens in the next two days...watching for another opportunity to short.