Therustyb

moment of truth for aapl.

NASDAQ:AAPL   Apple Inc
this is not investment advice just an observation,

Firsrt the bull case. This scenario is dependent on broader market conditions. i may consider a long position if we get a 30 min close above $268.40. In my opinion that would be confirmation of a breakout of this little range its been trading in, as it would be a push beyond the major fib level shown in the chart and a push to new ath.

I used to sweat buying at ath's but someone once made it a point to drive home to me that i should never be afraid to buy ath's as long as the volume is there to sustain the move. He told me "there are no bag holders waiting for the price to return to their breakeven point so they can dump their shares". that made a lot of sense to me and I have had a lot of success trading breakouts at ath's

Now for the bear case, which IMO may have a better chance of playing out. I also have an alert set for a close below 260.50. WIth this recent china news they may retaliate. then again they may not as their economy is on the brink of total collapse which would be bad for the US economy despite what people think. With these global economic pressures if the broader markets sell off AAPL is pretty extended and is experiencing a lot of selling pressure as it pushes for new ATH's. Never forget that stocks take the elevator to the top floor but jump out the window to get back down. The real potential for profit is to the downside IMO. Although I tend to look for more long setups as they better fit my personality this could be a profitable short setup if the macro pressures mount and we see a sell off.
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