NaughtyPines

AAPL EARNINGS -- NOT YET RIPE FOR A PREMIUM SELLING PLAY

NASDAQ:AAPL   APPLE INC
34 2 0
With earnings to be announced on 7/21 after market close and with IVR             currently at 64, AAPL             is not yet ripe for a premium selling earnings play. Ordinarily, I look for IVR             to be >70 before considering an earnings play short strangle or iron condor. In all likelihood, though, I will overlook the IVR             being below 70 and go ahead and make a play, since IVR             will contract post earnings .... .

Possible Set-Up: July 24 118/122/137/141 IC             for .77 credit, POP 71%, BE's at 121.23/137.77, BPE $323.00.

Alternative: July 24 122/137 short strangle for 1.35 credit, POP 74%, BE's at 120.65 and 138.35, BPE varies by broker (unlimited risk).

Expected move between 124 and 134 strikes.

NOTE: Where I have sufficient BP             available, I generally prefer short strangles due to higher profit potential, lower commission cost, and ease of trade management (rolling for duration/credit) in the event a side is tested.
khedzcool
a year ago
aapl going up?
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NaughtyPines khedzcool
a year ago
I have not had a great deal of success in predicting directionality for a particular underlying on short time frames. My general rule is to remain neutral on the vast majority of my setups, particularly for individual underlyings whether via short strangle or iron condor, opting instead for strategies that operate on the assumption that the underlying will remain in a particular range for the duration of the trade. That way, I can be wrong directionally, but still be right if the underlying's price remains in the range.
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