$AAPL - Bearish Butterfly

Takke profit at the 0.382 & 0.618 of the CD retracement.

Approach with caution. Only putting on one debit spread for this one, because the IV is so low and this thing still has earnings momentum behind it. Best of luck.
You should have more upvotes -- well done. I'd say this is certainly shaping up to suggest bearish butterfly... conservative profit target should be set around $220, more aggressive profit target around $150... how will the market shape up this holiday season? Small correction for sustainable growth into 2020 or temporary "recession" until things become more clear? Strangely, after having been more bearish about this earnings season, I'm now leaning more towards smaller correction... if not artificially inflated and avoided... As you've stated , it could somehow pull through and lead market higher.
+1 Reply
@ogdabber, I was just going off the generic rules of the Butterfly pattern for profit taking. Drew this thing up quickly when I saw it. Good advice though.
Honestly, I think we could see this continued momentum to the upside for the SPX to 3125, a draw down, then to 3250ish area. NDX has a really clean bearish deep crab in play with the target of 8400ish @ the 1.618 fib, which is why I could see some more upside in Apple and am shying away from an aggressive play on this. Although, it should be noted that Apple is on a TD 9 monthly and we should expect a 1-4 candlestick correction according to TD.

As for the rest of the year, Amazon's revenue guidance was concerning...everyone shook off the bad earnings, because Amazon is poring money into 1-day shipping and that is why there earnings missed. However, guidance is on the lower end of estimates which is bearish.

All this is going to come down to is jaw boning the phase 1 deal. China wants the US to pull more tariffs off the table for phase 1 to be signed, which would take away a bunch of leverage going into "phase 2". It looks like the US will bend the knee so Trump has a "good economy" going into the election.

The most frustrating thing for me is after we sign a phase 1 deal, even a phase 2 deal, then what? We are exactly back to where we started with a weakened macroeconomic picture, probably some tariffs still in place, disrupted supply chains, etc. Only thing holding this thing up is the debt ridden consumer.

I expect in the first half of next year, if we have some sort of truce, the data will still be weaker and the investors will be weighing the election with Warren as the most likely nominee ATM. It is 50/50 whether Trump gets reelected in my honest. The risk outlook really sucks lol.

Anyways, enough rambling. I really appreciate the feedback man it means a lot. I just do this for fun at this point and it's nice to know someone finds this helpful.
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