I don't wana get too into this one, since I think I'm only 2 for 4 & both times I've been wrong - I've been short. BUT, I don't like it. The only FAANG stock I'm bullish
on is $FB for now, but even $FB has some time to sell off before it gets moving (if it ultimately does). Besides that - the $QQQ idea I posted still has me worried for tech in the long run, because, really there's not much room to run whether it be growth in a tariff environment or value in an environment with higher interest rates. Interestingly enough - if it's not Apple
that gets hurt by tariffs, it's $AMZN margins that could get caught in the middle of rising costs & it's competition w/ $WMT. If it's not either them, it's $NFLX that stands to get cremated by interest rates. & let me put that more into perspective because this is interesting - the January peak, $NFLX had a 10 year annualized PE ratio of 977 (756 currently). If you truly understand the amount of debt $NFLX has to finance - you'd understand the significance of how interest rate hikes impact a company operating largely on debt (hint: Interest expense is growing @ a 20% increase MRQ
, $NFLX is only down -14% from its highs). Here's what's crazy - $FB can pay off 90% of their total long term debt just with the free cash flow they have. There's 0 amount of bearishness that can convince me to NOT look @ $FB as a discount regardless of where the market goes from here. So I can get back on track - red line was my estimate of a starting point to see a drop for Apple
. No other example I have but a textedit list of a few trades I'm eyeing for now but I'll leave a pic of that just in case anyone wants to get a little ahead of the game. I'm definitely short for the short term - but I'd have to see how it'd play out from there. A definite, safe, short play though.
Lil list - http://www.mediafire.com/file/4vk0j7oh48hpu7z/Screen_Shot_2018-09-23_at_2.21.51_PM.png