timwest
Long

AAPL mimicking the 1987 post crash bottom of Dec 1987

BATS:AAPL   Apple Inc.
1378 10 5
In a previous forecast I had labeled the forecast in black and all I have done here is to shift the forecast down a bit in price and it matches the previous movements in AAPL             shares.

Now that AAPL             could be in its "all time low" position equivalent to the post crash 1987 bottom in December 1987, it is time to really examine your view of AAPL             here with its huge balance sheet and no debt, it's negative news out of China and how there is still a large opportunity there going forward, their ultra-low valuation relative to cash flow, sales and earnings , and decide how much exposure you want to the stock. Maybe this is one of those times when a year from now you can say "I bought AAPL             at the lows in 2013"
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I guess I am considering a short sale up here in AAPL. In all of my comments written in the past 6 months I have mentioned an upside of $500 for the shares for the balance of this year. With the New iPhone around the corner and iOS7 coming out in September and with all of the new shareholders announcing their new positions - the stock has taken on a new light and I think therefore it is due for a correction or at least a "time out" for some sideways, base-building. 8/26/13 2:07PM EST AAPL = 501.02 last
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Now is an excellent time to write covered calls against AAPL for the next 6-9 months. If you look at the January 500 calls, they were at $17+ yesterday and provide an extra 3.5% dividend-yield-equivalent for giving away any return past $500 until this coming January (3rd Friday). The current return is roughly 10%, and if it gets called away that would be a 28% return in less than a year and all the while we had quite a large safety net of value supporting the investment (value in terms of sales, earnings, dividends, book value, cash flow, etc.). I like the idea of having some upside from here, but happy to receive a nice $17+ option income from Jan 2014 calls. Cheers. 3:47PM Wednesday, May 1, 2013
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So far, it's going well.
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So far, it's going well.
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Apple could make history tomorrow with its biggest second-quarter sales yet, though it's also expected to log its first decline in profit in 10 years.
That's what analysts anticipate in Tuesday's second-quarter earnings report, which will spell out the company's performance through the end of March.
Wall Street is expecting Apple to post earnings of $10.12 per share on sales of $42.6 billion, based on a poll of 48 analysts from Thomson First Call. That's down from earnings of $12.30 per share, and up from the $39.2 billion in sales from the same quarter a year ago.
Apple's own expectations for profits during the quarter came in between $9.23 and $10.23 per share on sales of $41 billion to $43 billion.
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You wrote: Maybe this is one of those times when a year from now you can say "I bought AAPL at the lows in 2013".

Where it can be in a year in your opinion?
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That is a good question. There isn't a tremendous amount of upside potential in AAPL basied on the mimicking analogy. But from the earnings expectations* and analysis that I have read, it seems as if AAPL could trade in the $400-$500 range for the next 12-24 months. So, I would say that AAPL could be up 20% in a year with decent probability.

*Let's assume they make $10 in earnings per quarter x 4 quarters and you have $40/year in earnings. Using a simple 10 times earnings gives you $400 valuation, but hardly adjusts for the fact they have zero debt and $100 billion plus in cash on the balance sheet.
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Thank you for sharing Tim.
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Head & Shoulders point to Aapl 340$, play safe.
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timwest PRO Leclaireur
Yes. I see. That is one measurement of many and it is certainly a factor. Thanks for highlighting it.
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