AAPL Weekly Harmonic Elliott Wave and Hurst's Cyclic Analysis
Overview: let's review the key points of the previous update:
Update: First, there is no change to my thesis for the current 40W cycle/wave 4 trough: I am expecting it at 185.32 in the middle of August.
Analysis of the structure: not a fun structure to count really. I see a double zigzag developing and right now we are in wave III of (a) of y. The hourly channels that we had drawn on the hourly chart are controlling the price action in a very strong way, as you can see on the hourly chart.
If we break these channels lower, the move to the downside will be much more smooth.
Analysis of the cycles: we are completing the second 20D cycle of the first 40D cycle of the second 80D cycle of the second 20W cycle of the 40W cycle.
The 20D FLD was crossed down on Thursday implying a target of 191 for the current 20D cycle trough (wave (a) bottom). However, today we got a close back above the FLD, which happens because of the lower cycles influencing the price action. This delays our assessment of the FLD to generate targets, since we need to wait for the second cross below the FLD.
Also, note that the upward 10D VTL has been crossed (it was a minor cross, yet a valid one), implying that the peak of the current 20D cycle is already in, as we are expecting in our count (high of Thursday).
- AAPL is moving downside in wave 4/forming a 40W cycle trough around 12th of August.
- If 20W cycle FLD act as a support, then ~184 as a potential target for wave 4 bottom.
- Fib retracement of wave 3 shows 185.32 as the target.
Update: First, there is no change to my thesis for the current 40W cycle/wave 4 trough: I am expecting it at 185.32 in the middle of August.
Analysis of the structure: not a fun structure to count really. I see a double zigzag developing and right now we are in wave III of (a) of y. The hourly channels that we had drawn on the hourly chart are controlling the price action in a very strong way, as you can see on the hourly chart.
If we break these channels lower, the move to the downside will be much more smooth.
Analysis of the cycles: we are completing the second 20D cycle of the first 40D cycle of the second 80D cycle of the second 20W cycle of the 40W cycle.
The 20D FLD was crossed down on Thursday implying a target of 191 for the current 20D cycle trough (wave (a) bottom). However, today we got a close back above the FLD, which happens because of the lower cycles influencing the price action. This delays our assessment of the FLD to generate targets, since we need to wait for the second cross below the FLD.
Also, note that the upward 10D VTL has been crossed (it was a minor cross, yet a valid one), implying that the peak of the current 20D cycle is already in, as we are expecting in our count (high of Thursday).
