zSplit

Is Gold Quietly Gearing up for a Run? Technicals Say Yes!

Long
TSX:ABX   BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION
One of the best ways to forecast Gold is looking at the senior stocks. Why? Senior stocks are the most highly short interest stocks in the precious metal sector and they never consistently rise until a Gold run is near.

I believe what we are seeing now is the "true" bull run for Gold in-the-making, and eventually Silver and Platinum will follow (Platinum will be the slowest of the 3). Gold bottomed at 1450, and in my opinion, is exactly where Gold should have been. The US-China trade war from much of 2019 is what pushed Gold exceptionally higher as a result of extreme uncertainty.

While the "deal" serves little purpose and will do nothing to revive economic numbers anywhere in the world, what it has done is essentially confirmed a bit of a "lets start over" type of mentality because Trump had the option of giving-in or escalating the trade war and allowing the market to plummet. Obviously, he chose the former.

In reality, Gold will quietly begin to run up - moreso in 2020. While most people will continue to short Gold as they think a USA/China trade deal will send it plummeting, the reality is, most logical investors know what we will see is a likely continuation of a blow-off top for the remaining of December, with a likely short in Q1 2020.

Contrary to popular belief, yields rising at this point no longer will push precious metals down. This was relevant during the height of the USA/China trade-war , however, yields will inevitably rise whenever the next recession occurs as investors lose faith in governmental treasuries.

Moreover, Powell stated rates will remain unchanged in 2020. As usual, the Federal Reserves job is to remain artificially optimistic and 'lie' to the public to mitigate any fear. In reality, Powell will likely cut 2 or 3 times in 2020 with, in my opinion, the first cut coming in March or April of 2020, a second late in the summer, and potentially a third later in 2020 depending on the probability of Trump winning or losing and how the market prices in uncertainty. Remember, central banks do not forecast recessions. They react to them.

The time to slowly add precious metals is now as by the time 2020 comes, you may have timed yourself out of the market.

Expect Barrick to continue to push higher off the 180 sinusoidal pivot set back in early November.

- zSplit

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