20% Drop Since My Bear Call in Cardano! (ADA/BTC)

What's good world? This is the magician himself, live and direct, bringin you that fire! Let's get it! I'd like to start by saying that on 2/15/17, I gave you the head and shoulders target. Since then, Cardano has fallen by 20%! If that isn't legendary analysis, then IDK what is. Looking at the four hour chart of Cardano, we can see that ADA/BTC has continued it's descent. In the last analysis, I said "Right now, it's testing the 61.8% retrace, and the low from 2/2/18. If that level falls, ADA/BTC will probably have a swift decline to around 3204." As you can see, the 61.8% retrace has fallen, and ADA/BTC is making a quick move toward 3204, as anticipated." Now, you can see that Cardano has slightly surpassed 3204, falling as low as 3033. There was some hesitation at the 3204 level, but it inevitably fell. Now, Cardano is actually retesting that level as resistance. You can see that the 20 EMA (in blue) is also falling toward the price action, so that could be problematic for further upside. However, ADA/BTC has had a substantial fall, so a relief rally wouldn't be shocking. The 50 EMA (in orange) is just above the 20 EMA, ready to provide more resistance if necessary. Overall, ADA/BTC is making nice progress toward the downside target. Regardless, I want to remind everyone that targets are obviously not guaranteed. They are general projections, that the market could eventually reach. If a confirmed reversal signal were to emerge (such as a gap higher, on heavy volume, with a bullish MACD crossover) before the target was reached, the target would be abandoned in favor of trading the reversal. That's just an example though. Right now, there is no evidence of such a reversal. Instead, ADA/BTC is just curling up, possibly for a small relief rally. The volume is practically nonexistent, and the MACD is in a sad state of weakness. HOWEVER, I do want to point out something worth noting. We have a bullish divergence on the MACD. You can see that as price has made lower lows, the MACD has made higher lows. This tells us that the sell-side momentum is weakening, as the price continues to fall — which is not sustainable. If Cardano starts breaking above the 20 EMA, and especially the 50 EMA, we could see a nice pop. However, keep in mind that trading in anticipation of that is against the trend and into falling overhead resistance. Buuuuut, if you're bullish and you want to be crafty, you could (for educational purposes only) go long, with a sell stop right at 3000. If the market rolls back over (which is likely) your stop would be reached, and you would sustain only a small loss. The point though, is that you would be entering a trade with potential upside in mind, and mitigated downside risk. I wouldn't necessarily take that trade idea though, because the trend is down. Remember, the trend is your friend! The better trade would be to wait for a recovery to take place, and sell into it when it rolls over. Particularly, if it tests the bottom of the 61.8% retrace, and fails. Even better yet, you should have listened to me 20% ago, when I gave you the downside head and shoulders target. Just sayin'. Good luck everyone! I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic. Au revoir.

This has been your not-so-humble market wizard, droppin' knowledge like bombs in this place! Please follow, comment, like, and share on social media. Good luck trading everyone!

***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***

-MPC loves you-

-JD-