ADA/USD Sideways April 1-4, then RISK falling to 0.89 April 5-10
On March 29 I posted an idea analyzing the two week period of March 29-April 12 (link below). This is an update on the forecast and emerging signals. I will post another update in a couple of days and another when the new week starts.
Summary:
April 1-4
As previously forecast, ADA has remained in a very narrow channel around the 1.20 level. Even a BTC flash crash on 3/31 could not bring ADA lower than 1.15 before returning to 1.20.
The new 1D and 3D (3 days remain) charts indicate continued sideways movement with a slight bias to the downside. No apparent buying opportunities in this period.
April 5-10
Indicators in today's new 2D chart and new 5D chart suggest the 1.20 channel starting to break in the April 4-6 timeframe. In the current 2D chart, all indicators are around level 50, as would be expected in sideways price action, but two indicators are at crossover point. The red RSI has descended to just 51, while the blue LSMA has dropped below 50 to 47. If the current 2D candle closes at these levels and this trend continues in the next candle, ADA will be at risk breaking to the downside from the current channel. Notably, with the LSMA descending below 50, the Bollinger bands will expand, allowing any downward momentum to push prices lower than the channel.
Today's new 5D chart shows continued descent of LSMA and RSI, indicating fading upward momentum. The white EMA continues to be well below 50 and has slightly descended further, indicating continuing downward pressure. Finally, the green EMA has accelerated its descent towards level 50. It starts this new candle at 58. The previous candle was at 70, a drop of 12 points. The green EMA only needs to drop another 8 points to cross below level 50. Closing the candle below 50 indicates a probably move to the yellow basis line, 0.78 in the current candle, and likely around 0.87 in the next candle.
Without a reversal, towards the end of this 5D candle (April 5) or in the following 5D candle (April 6-10) odds are rapidly increasing that ADA will see a drop to the range of 1.03 to 0.89 (both levels are fibs). Again, the candle needs to close with green EMA under 50 for this to be probable, so this signal is not strong yet. We must watch the indicators closely in the next several days to see if the trend continues and the signal becomes strong.
If such a drop occurs, it could be an excellent buying opportunity. It looks unlikely that ADA will drop much lower than these levels before the second wave of the altcoin season starts in mid to late April.
In the meantime, be careful with ADA/USD margin longs. Good luck and good fortune!
Summary:
- Next 1-3 days (April 1-4) ADA/USD likely continuing sideways in narrow channel around 1.20 +/- 0.05
- Break below 1.20 channel and POSSIBLE attractive buying opportunity forming in April 5-10 timeframe
April 1-4
As previously forecast, ADA has remained in a very narrow channel around the 1.20 level. Even a BTC flash crash on 3/31 could not bring ADA lower than 1.15 before returning to 1.20.
The new 1D and 3D (3 days remain) charts indicate continued sideways movement with a slight bias to the downside. No apparent buying opportunities in this period.
April 5-10
Indicators in today's new 2D chart and new 5D chart suggest the 1.20 channel starting to break in the April 4-6 timeframe. In the current 2D chart, all indicators are around level 50, as would be expected in sideways price action, but two indicators are at crossover point. The red RSI has descended to just 51, while the blue LSMA has dropped below 50 to 47. If the current 2D candle closes at these levels and this trend continues in the next candle, ADA will be at risk breaking to the downside from the current channel. Notably, with the LSMA descending below 50, the Bollinger bands will expand, allowing any downward momentum to push prices lower than the channel.
Today's new 5D chart shows continued descent of LSMA and RSI, indicating fading upward momentum. The white EMA continues to be well below 50 and has slightly descended further, indicating continuing downward pressure. Finally, the green EMA has accelerated its descent towards level 50. It starts this new candle at 58. The previous candle was at 70, a drop of 12 points. The green EMA only needs to drop another 8 points to cross below level 50. Closing the candle below 50 indicates a probably move to the yellow basis line, 0.78 in the current candle, and likely around 0.87 in the next candle.
Without a reversal, towards the end of this 5D candle (April 5) or in the following 5D candle (April 6-10) odds are rapidly increasing that ADA will see a drop to the range of 1.03 to 0.89 (both levels are fibs). Again, the candle needs to close with green EMA under 50 for this to be probable, so this signal is not strong yet. We must watch the indicators closely in the next several days to see if the trend continues and the signal becomes strong.
If such a drop occurs, it could be an excellent buying opportunity. It looks unlikely that ADA will drop much lower than these levels before the second wave of the altcoin season starts in mid to late April.
In the meantime, be careful with ADA/USD margin longs. Good luck and good fortune!
As forecast, in the past two days ADA prices have moved sideways in a very narrow channel around 1.20, aside from a small dip to 1.17 and a brief spike to 1.25 when BTC touched $60k. The power of the 1.20 level continues to compel ADA's price action for now, though even yesterday's spike to 1.25 could not overcome prices falling back down below 1.20. The new 2D chart suggests that sideways action will continue for another 2 days, with a bias towards the downside.
In terms of a possible correction, indicators in today's new 2D chart show that the RSI is flat 53 while LSMA has descended further below 50 to 45, and both green and white EMA indicators are just above 50 and descending. This indicates that the risk of a correction has slightly increased in the last candle. The 5D chart (3 days remain) has not significantly deviated from the trend at the start of the candle two days ago. Thus, the risk of a drop continues and the signal is getting stronger.
While waiting for the current 2D and 5D candles to close, we will want to keep an eye on BTC prices. BTC could not break through $60k yesterday, but if it does break above $60k and can turn $60k into a new support level, it could significantly change the trends. Higher BTC prices could raise prices across all coins, eliminating the risk of ADA/USD dropping significantly, or the renewed attention on BTC may increase its dominance at the cost of altcoins, adding downward momentum to ADA's current downward pressure.
Good luck and good fortune!