ADA/USD March 29 to April 12 - 2 Week Forecast 1.03 to 1.30

ADA/USD Price Forecast March 29 to April 12

With new candles across the board, including a new 1 and 2 week charts, we can now analyze indicators into mid-April. Unfortunately it does not look like ADA is ready to move up to new levels, but will present opportunities for scalping. First, I will summaries fundamentals and events that could override the TA forecast.

Trends and Upcoming Events
Summary: ADA prices to rise due to the addition of smart contracts, NFT support, increased adoption, and generally positive sentiment, but many of these may not have an impact until late April or May.

• Traditionally March is a month of consolidation. While ADA did have a spike to 1.47 mid-March due to Coinbase Pro's adoption of ADA, on March 1 ADA/USD was 1.31 and with three days left in the month, ADA is below 1.20, -8% for the month. April can be a period of reversal to a strong consolidation phase in May, but it may be gradual.
  
• Bitcoin continues to dominate crypto, affecting coins and tokens broadly. BTC consolidation has limited the growth of ADA in recent weeks. April could see BTC break out of this consolidation phase, allowing ADA more room to grow
  
• On March 31st, Cardano should reach 100% decentralization. This has been in progress for a long time, increasing each day and is already almost 100%. There is no big bang change on the 31st or surprise announcement expected, but this milestone could raise sentiment
  
• Building on the Alonzo hard fork, in late April or early May, Cardano will deploy a testnet of Plutus, giving ADA smart contracts. This is a huge development for Cardano that will allow it to fight Ethereum directly. Plutus will bring fast smart contract transactions a much lower prices than ETH. Sentiment should rise as the hard fork approaches, but the deployment will only be on testnet to begin with, so its true impact may not be felt until May or later. This could fuel a sustained rise in prices, but perhaps not before late April.
  
• Also coming with Alonzo is NFT support. NFT's are a huge growth area, but they still trail far behind smart contracts in near-term upside. Adding NFT support, however, will add new avenues of value, transactions, customers, and investors. Again, this may not have a large impact until late April or May.
  
• Another recent positive development is Cardano in Africa. ADA was prominent in the recent Blockchain Africa conference. Cardano will be setting up many offices in Africa and has a $250 million fund to grow Cardano use in Africa. Ethiopia looks to be the first to adopt Cardano in government with the support of its PM, a PhD in computer science. The immediate impact of the deal is not clear, but it is another milestone that may open doors for significant growth in Africa where blockchain could be a central solution to many of the countries' economic and currency infrastructure challenges.
  
  Technical Analysis of March 29 to April 12
  Summary: Mostly sideways between 1.03 and 1.32 unless a shock or change in fundamentals
  
• 3D - Blue LSMA continues to decline, narrowing the Bollinger Bands and limiting upside to around 1.20. A spike to 1.25 or even 1.30 is possible, as is a dip to 1.03 but prices should remain between 1.11 and 1.20 as white EMA remains flat at 36 and RSI and LSMA are the same distance from level 50 but above it, keeping price action in a balanced, sideways range.
  
• 1W - The new 1 week chart shows slight rises in green and white EMA, while LSMA is very high at 108 and RSI descends again towards level 80. Overall this indicates downward momentum. If the white EMA were to come up above 50, we could see a jump in prices to the upper aqua and upper orange B-bands (1.32 to 1.77), but the white EMA remains very low. This means that any movement above 1.30 would require considerable momentum. Prices will likely remained range-bound between 1.03 and 1.30 with 1.20 continuing to be an anchor point.
  
• 2W - the new 2 week chart shows RSI and LSMA very high, above 100. Green EMA continues to descend but is high at 86. Normally this would mean prices rising around the upper orange B-Band, but the white EMA has descended further below level 50 down to 30, counterbalancing the positive indicators. Without a reversal, prices are likely to stay between the upper aqua and upper orange B-Bands (1.09 to 1.52), with a bias towards the upper aqua (1.09). In other words, in the next two weeks we could see a spike that challenges 1.50 due to a change in fundamentals, but without a source of sustained upward momentum, prices look to be range-bound between 1.03 and 1.32.
  Note: Just as prices could spike from 1.20 to above 1.32 or above, action in the opposite direction is also possible, meaning a dip to 1.00 or below. In the 3D chart indicators continue to lose upward momentum, making it easier for a dip to hit 1.00 or wick below, particularly between April 1-4. If this does occur, it is a particularly good accumulation zone, and is not likely to last long.
  
  This forecast may be disappointing to us who want to see a breakout to the upside for ADA, but sometimes sideways is good. After massive appreciation in January and February, this period of consolidation will provide a solid foundation for the next wave (potentially later in April), and stable prices will be attractive to risk-averse institutions.
  
  Good luck and good fortune!

Comment:

A quick update until my next daily update on 4/1.

With the help of a BTC flash crash and broader crypto selloff, ADA/USD broke below the 1.20 support level, accelerating a downward trend that had started earlier in the day. Looking at the 12H and the 2D, indicators are showing downward momentum and approaching a tipping point that would allow lower prices. The buy zone remains from 0.96 to 1.11 for now, but at or under 1.15 should also be considered if there is a bounce and again ADA returns to 1.20+