Potential for reversal to upward pressure
We have seen a number of upward pressure races propagate up from the lowest timeframes.
The upward pressure races are a multi-timeframe dynamic indication of sentiment cascading up through timeframes.
Currently we are looking at the race between the 6h and the 12h.
When the Red RSI CROSSED above 50 in the 6h an upward pressure race was triggered. In order for us to see a continuation of upward pressure, we need to see the Red RSI in the 12h CROSS above 50 before the Energy in the 6h CLOSES below 50. Additionally we need to see the Green EMA, higher than the Energy in the three preceding timeframes. If the Red RSI in the 12h wins the race, we now have to see if the upward pressure can propagate into the next doubled timeframe. So we need to see the Red RSI in the daily CROSS above 50 before the Energy in the 12h CLOSES below 50 etc...
In the 12h the Red RSI and Blue LSMA have closed making contact with the Green EMA as it rises indicating upward pressure. There are two hours 15 minutes left in the current candle, we want to see the Red RSI and Blue LSMA continue toward level 50, if they can close above 56 we can expect the Bollinger Band basis (currently $2.5 but falling) to act as support.
The Red RSI and Blue LSMA have also made contact with the Green EMA as it rises in the daily - if we can see a close like this in 14 hours and 15 minutes this will be an indication of upward pressure in the daily too.
So we are looking at some indicators in lower timeframes showing bullish potential in an overall local bearish structure. The Green EMA is higher than the Energy in the 4h and below, indicating bullish sentiment, however in the 6h and higher we are seeing the Energy higher than the Green EMA indicating bearish sentiment. This accords with the upward pressure races.
Crucially we need to see the Energy in the 2d win the downward pressure race against the Red RSI in the 4d and the upward pressure races to continue to propagate through the timeframes.
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the 2d a downward pressure race was triggered. In order for upward pressure to continue, we first need to see the Energy in the 2d CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 4d CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green MA higher than the Energy in at least the three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered. If the Red RSI wins we then have a race between the Energy in the 4d and the Red RSI in the 8d etc. This downward pressure race has cascaded up from lower TFs. Until the Energy decisively wins the race, we do not have a chance for reversal to upward pressure in the relevant timeframes.
In the 3h when the Blue LSMA crossed above 50, we saw a resulting commencement of expansion of the Bollinger Bands leading to potential of higher price action, we need to see if this can continue and watch for the same in the 4h, 6h & 8h.
In summary:
It is my opinion that we stand a good chance of seeing a reversal to sustained upward pressure, if BTC can hold support at least.
But we need to continue to monitor these timeframes to see if we can see a positive conclusion to the downward pressure race and a continuation of the upward pressure races.
As mentioned in previous publications, these markets can change with very little notice. These changes initially manifest themselves in the lower timeframes and propagate up through the timeframes. Nothing is set in stone. Unless you are day trading, you cannot benefit from these early warning signals.
As always - this is not financial advice but just my view of current market dynamics.
One has to be aware that analyses are done on the basis of what the indicators are saying at the time and things can change. It is important to always monitor the scalping group of timeframes as we will see changes propagate up from there.
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Trade safe
aBL
The upward pressure races are a multi-timeframe dynamic indication of sentiment cascading up through timeframes.
Currently we are looking at the race between the 6h and the 12h.
When the Red RSI CROSSED above 50 in the 6h an upward pressure race was triggered. In order for us to see a continuation of upward pressure, we need to see the Red RSI in the 12h CROSS above 50 before the Energy in the 6h CLOSES below 50. Additionally we need to see the Green EMA, higher than the Energy in the three preceding timeframes. If the Red RSI in the 12h wins the race, we now have to see if the upward pressure can propagate into the next doubled timeframe. So we need to see the Red RSI in the daily CROSS above 50 before the Energy in the 12h CLOSES below 50 etc...
In the 12h the Red RSI and Blue LSMA have closed making contact with the Green EMA as it rises indicating upward pressure. There are two hours 15 minutes left in the current candle, we want to see the Red RSI and Blue LSMA continue toward level 50, if they can close above 56 we can expect the Bollinger Band basis (currently $2.5 but falling) to act as support.
The Red RSI and Blue LSMA have also made contact with the Green EMA as it rises in the daily - if we can see a close like this in 14 hours and 15 minutes this will be an indication of upward pressure in the daily too.
So we are looking at some indicators in lower timeframes showing bullish potential in an overall local bearish structure. The Green EMA is higher than the Energy in the 4h and below, indicating bullish sentiment, however in the 6h and higher we are seeing the Energy higher than the Green EMA indicating bearish sentiment. This accords with the upward pressure races.
Crucially we need to see the Energy in the 2d win the downward pressure race against the Red RSI in the 4d and the upward pressure races to continue to propagate through the timeframes.
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the 2d a downward pressure race was triggered. In order for upward pressure to continue, we first need to see the Energy in the 2d CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 4d CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green MA higher than the Energy in at least the three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered. If the Red RSI wins we then have a race between the Energy in the 4d and the Red RSI in the 8d etc. This downward pressure race has cascaded up from lower TFs. Until the Energy decisively wins the race, we do not have a chance for reversal to upward pressure in the relevant timeframes.
In the 3h when the Blue LSMA crossed above 50, we saw a resulting commencement of expansion of the Bollinger Bands leading to potential of higher price action, we need to see if this can continue and watch for the same in the 4h, 6h & 8h.
In summary:
It is my opinion that we stand a good chance of seeing a reversal to sustained upward pressure, if BTC can hold support at least.
But we need to continue to monitor these timeframes to see if we can see a positive conclusion to the downward pressure race and a continuation of the upward pressure races.
As mentioned in previous publications, these markets can change with very little notice. These changes initially manifest themselves in the lower timeframes and propagate up through the timeframes. Nothing is set in stone. Unless you are day trading, you cannot benefit from these early warning signals.
As always - this is not financial advice but just my view of current market dynamics.
One has to be aware that analyses are done on the basis of what the indicators are saying at the time and things can change. It is important to always monitor the scalping group of timeframes as we will see changes propagate up from there.
If you got value from this analysis, please hit the like button
Trade safe
aBL
We were hoping to see a better indication that the Energy in the 6h would close above 50 before the Red RSI in the 12h crosses above 50.
Although the race is still ongoing, the Energy in the 6h is currently at level 53 while the Red RSI in the 12h is at level 37. This currently makes the Red RSI favourite, furthermore, the Red RSI in the 6h has made contact with the Green EMA as it falls - if we close like this at the end of this new 6h candle, the Energy will fall below 50 on the next candle indicating downward pressure continuing. We have also seen another upward pressure race triggered between the 8h and the 16h. We will monitor the outcome of the two races...