Coinbase Pro announcing its support for ADA reminded us that fundamentals and external events can trump technical analysis, so we must not believe too strongly in TA's forecasts and be sure to manage our risks. With Coinbase onboard, is ADA on its way to the moon? Not yet, according to the TA. With today's new daily/multi-day candles ADA/USD prices for the rest of this month are coming into focus.
ADA/USD prices following the breakout have shown resilience in the past eight hours indicating that the move was not purely an impulse or pump and dump. More exchanges supporting ADA are good for ADA, and we can expect increased support (and other positive ADA news) to support new ATH's later this year.
While ADA/USD is trying to set up support at 1.20 following the breakout, indicators are showing that it is oversold at this level and upward momentum quickly waning, meaning that support is weak and not likely sustainable. In other words, this is likely not a springboard to higher prices. In the short-term (intra-day) it is likely that we will see a retracement to the 1.11 fib or possibly a bit lower on a wick to 1.08 or 1.05. Following that, prices may bounce in the 1.11 to 1.20 channel for the remainder of this week as we wait to see the impact of Coinbase adoption and this week's ADA news.
Daily (1D to 5D) charts show that downward momentum has slowed considerably in the near-term. Dropping to/below 1.00 appears off the table for now, but that looks temporary. In the 3D chart, RSI and LSMA are not reversing, continuing their slow decline despite the breakout and its upward momentum. Unless the RSI and LSMA bottom out in the next 3-6 days, we will again be looking at prices lower than 1.00 before the end of March. The new 5 day candle supports this outlook, showing considerable downward momentum continuing through the end of the month (March 27 to 31 candle). Looking further out, the 1W and 2W charts are also continuing their downward momentum. Again, this shares many similarities with ADA/USD in August 2020. In 2020, ADA/USD was in a similar position around mid-August, and it was not until mid-September that we saw a definitive reversal. We may not see a strong reversal until early/mid-April.
TL:DR - sideways action likely between 1.11 and 1.20 areas for the next several days or week, with some volatility. Later this week until the end of the month, downward momentum is likely to again take control and put 1.00 and below back in action before a potential reversal in early to mid-April.
3D
1W
ADA/USD prices following the breakout have shown resilience in the past eight hours indicating that the move was not purely an impulse or pump and dump. More exchanges supporting ADA are good for ADA, and we can expect increased support (and other positive ADA news) to support new ATH's later this year.
While ADA/USD is trying to set up support at 1.20 following the breakout, indicators are showing that it is oversold at this level and upward momentum quickly waning, meaning that support is weak and not likely sustainable. In other words, this is likely not a springboard to higher prices. In the short-term (intra-day) it is likely that we will see a retracement to the 1.11 fib or possibly a bit lower on a wick to 1.08 or 1.05. Following that, prices may bounce in the 1.11 to 1.20 channel for the remainder of this week as we wait to see the impact of Coinbase adoption and this week's ADA news.
Daily (1D to 5D) charts show that downward momentum has slowed considerably in the near-term. Dropping to/below 1.00 appears off the table for now, but that looks temporary. In the 3D chart, RSI and LSMA are not reversing, continuing their slow decline despite the breakout and its upward momentum. Unless the RSI and LSMA bottom out in the next 3-6 days, we will again be looking at prices lower than 1.00 before the end of March. The new 5 day candle supports this outlook, showing considerable downward momentum continuing through the end of the month (March 27 to 31 candle). Looking further out, the 1W and 2W charts are also continuing their downward momentum. Again, this shares many similarities with ADA/USD in August 2020. In 2020, ADA/USD was in a similar position around mid-August, and it was not until mid-September that we saw a definitive reversal. We may not see a strong reversal until early/mid-April.
TL:DR - sideways action likely between 1.11 and 1.20 areas for the next several days or week, with some volatility. Later this week until the end of the month, downward momentum is likely to again take control and put 1.00 and below back in action before a potential reversal in early to mid-April.
3D
1W