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ADA/USD - Another 1.50 test, 1.20 in next 3-4 days

Short
BINANCE:ADAUSDT   Cardano / TetherUS
Hello friends!

Yesterday started with prices up, but late in the day prices fell to 1.60 and then 1.55, as forecast. Since then ADA tested 1.50 with a wick to 1.47. The 1.50 level appears to be holding for now, and ADA may reclaim 1.55, but this may not hold long.

The 12H is indicating lower lows, and prices could again test 1.50, dropping to the lower orange B-band (1.47). This level is close to the white lower B-band in the daily (1.48). Thus, prices are likely to range around the 1.50 level, but if broken could drop towards 1.40.

The new 2D chart is correlating with the 9D chart. A mid-month consolidation is appearing much more likely, leading to shakeout down to 1.15 or a bit lower.

2D chart


Today's new 2D chart has the LSMA and RSI around level 50 and moving lower. The green EMA is lower than the white EMA, suggesting lower lows. In the next 36 hours that may only mean prices around 1.50 or the lower B-band of 1.44, but if the candle closes down, then it is likely that indicators will continue to fall. The combination of LSMA below level 50 (wider B-bands) and lower green/white EMAs in the next (not current) candle would put in play prices down to 1.34, possibly lower.


9D chart


In recent updates I have been highlighting the risk of a deeper consolidation based on the indicators in the 9D chart. This risk has significantly increased. Currently the green EMA is at level 46 while RSI is just under 70 with 3 days left in the candle.

Lower timeframes suggest that prices will stay at these lower prices (~1.50) and are likely to move lower during the time remaining in the current 9D candle. Thus, it is likely that the indicators will close around the current levels.

If that occurs, then it is probable (80%+) that, in the next 9D candle starting June 12, prices will fall to the region around the yellow basis. We can expect the yellow basis to be around 1.12-1.14 in the next candle.

Prices to be watching for would be 1.15 and 1.11, which have been levels of support and/or Fibonacci's in the past. A wick down to 1.03/1.00 is possible, but with LSMA and RSI as high as they are, a drop below 1.00 does not look likely (or would be very short lived if it were to occur).

Note that this would further delay ADA rallying back above 2.00. Sustained bullish moves may not occur until the end of June or early July, but this will depend on the depth and length of a consolidation.

Good luck and good fortune!

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