TA-Vision
Short

AEX : Sell in May and go away ?

EURONEXT:AEX   AEX Index
Hi everyone, the gap of 06/03/20 was finally closed at 528 after which a large decline followed, see here the importance of the improving effect of this level on which large parties were trading. Can we now expect a further major drop?

To get a better picture, I first discuss the day chart: after the sideways movement of the month of April, there was only an outbreak upwards in the last few days and this to close the gap, this outbreak does ensure that we are above the MA50 This could now provide support this is important to keep an eye on in the first week, the RSI must also go below 50 to drop further! On Monday it runs around 505. If it breaks, the next target is 482, an old support!


Now the hour chart



Here we saw a short signal again in the last hours of yesterday, it is important that it now remains below the MA50, I have made a slightly rising trend channel from the sideways movement which now coincides with 505, this is also the level of the MA50 in the daily graph as discussed earlier. See here the importance of this level. Support can still be found here!

An overview :
There is a short signal in the hour chart to 505 initially, below 505 (MA50) there is also a short signal in the day chart which will give a larger drop initially to 482.

Follow this idea for updates!

Good luck traders!

regards

TT
Comment: Hi, with a thump the aex has fallen through his supports, the disadvantage is that there is a gap around 512 that can be closed in the long term, when it is now difficult to say. Note that it took until last week to close the 528 (6/03/20) gap. The RSI has now entered OS territory, which means that every revival should be seen as a correction to this decline. The first target is 482, this is an important level to be overcome, where the focus is into the coming days.



Comment: Hi everyone, the expected decline has not yet started, the analysis stated that it was important that the MA50 had to break in order to continue to decline, see that the MA50 once again served as support on Monday, so we bounced back. This means that for the time being the scenario that we first go to 482 will disappear, the 528 can now pull like a magnet again. If this would break the road is open to 545 (another small gap of 05/03/20) but we are not there yet.



In the hour chart, we were again broken by the MA50 yesterday with force (see this morning's open gap again).
The RSI is not yet OB. For the time being, it will remain a sideways movement between 500 - 528 in the coming period



Comment:
Hi everyone: "gaps" you either love it or hate it. It certainly makes it difficult to judge because of their attractive effect. So I keep in mind that these can be closed. We are back under MA50 and the RSI has become OS again which is a negative development. It is still a sideways move for the time being, real trend reversal only below the green ascending trend line (now around 483). A descending resistance line can now also be noted at the top.

Good luck traders!

Comments

Bulls in control?
+1 Reply
TA-Vision Cryptosmart
@Cryptosmart, Indeed, the bulls have brought us back above the MA50, the interests are huge. Last week there was an inverted hammer, every effort is made not to put a red weekcandle to confirm the top pattern, my thought

+1 Reply
Thank you! Bulls slowing down, but still in control and kicking me out from short positions. I have several max one at 579. Now I see my 540 ones being kicked out later today. More ECB and FED relief packages will be announced this week. Furthermore, usually 16h NL time the SPY starts to walk up gradually or even steep to make sure EU indexes make a green finish. Many red flags but impossible to predict when it will go down again.
What would be strategically be good knock out levels you would use in sprinters/turbo's?
Reply
TA-Vision Cryptosmart
@Cryptosmart, Hi, I understand the difficulty you are having. Shorts have a decreasing stoploss, so in the long run they become less valuable compared to longs that do not. A sideways market is actually a death blow to shorts and that is unfortunately happening now. Also try to anticipate the rise you expect with small long positions. When it comes to choosing stoploss, everyone has different plans, strategies and is difficult to say personally. If the 530 were to provide support, the next attraction would be the gap around 548. We will have to take it step by step, if we have a lock below 530 on Friday, this outbreak was even a bull trap and the shorters will still be rewarded. It can be a crazy week
Reply
Is this still valid or do you expect the market to go up now, since it broke 530?
Reply
Dau30, Hi, the aex has bounced twice from the MA50 in recent weeks, so that a longer term decline has been avoided for the time being, the breakthrough at the top is currently not convincing enough given the developments in the RSI, I expect a more sideways course. It is certainly an important week now, and the end of the month. It is now important to see whether 530 will provide support or not before we can look back up.

+1 Reply
Dau30 Dau30
Thanks for the reply! Will keep an eye on 530 and RSI
Reply
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