Looking at the Timed Cycles for C3.ai I used the Timed Cycles a year ago to predict a 30% price movement and although the timing was off a bit it did hit my target. So here we are again 1 year later and based on the price movement of the stock for the previous 2 quarters I'm of the opinion that History will repeat itself. I also added in a Ghost Feed of projected candles to visualize a small run with a pullback and then subsequent move up to the next Quarterly Financials. This of course is speculative however the potential return/risk reward I am fairly confident. This is a Swing Trade that depending on your entry and exit dates can last 7 weeks. Right now in the short term C3.ai looks almost oversold and the down trend still is showing a little strength so expect overall for a neutral trend from the current price point and perhaps wait for a dip to take your position should you decide to.
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Well so far this has not gone exactly as I saw it play out with a more significant drop than anticipated however I have been looking for a bottom signal to take that position and it still has not showed itself. I'd like to point out that the ADX Indicator is still below 25 meaning that the trend is weak even though the move is significant. 0-25: Absent or weak trend, 25-50: Strong trend, 50-75: Very strong trend... This to me bodes well for when the trend reversal occurs. On the chart you can see the death Cross had formed with the 50 day EMA crossing the 200 day EMA and it has done that 5 times since last October crossing in both a Golden and Death Cross form with not as much effect till now. This tells me that it is likely several large institutional investors have decided to divest some of their holding at this time. The value of the company though is still there as there are 415 Institutions holding 50% of the float. I have drawn support and resistance lines on the chart that coincide with those back in April and May of last year. The price targets are in black on the chart. Note that the target prices in the margin just don't quite line up with the lines drawn but the current line at $20.59 is the first resistance and I suspect should be formidable to holding the price at this point. I am still not ready to take a position till a trend reversal is confirmed but to me this just allows for a better opportunity.
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It appears that the bottom has been made at $20.5 and has now moved up 10% in the past 2 days. Imho now is the time to take a position as C3.ai has traditionally swung in price above and below both the 50 and 200 day EMA's so going into their next Quarterly Financials on May 30th I believe the minimum price appreciation will be to $25.82 for a 15% gain, then $27.30 and ultimately $29.68 for a potential 33% move up from today's price. A clear move to $27.30 should be easy for ai and that'll be a 21% gain.
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As in the new chart above. Just showing a slightly different perspective of the recent action. Breakout. From February 29th until April 19th nearly 2 months of a significant downtrend and losing 44% of C3.ai's value from $36 down to $20 I have 3 reversal targets leading into the May 30th Quarterly Financials.