EuroMotif

ALGO.USD bounced EXACTLY where expected but correction NOT done?

COINBASE:ALGOUSD   ALGO/USD
AlgoRand bounced EXACTLY where expected (see idea link below).
But the bounce looks and measures "corrective" more so than "Impulsive".
Plotted are two scenarios for the correction to continue to new local lows.

Hopefully I am WRONG and we see a sudden surge like Algo does.
One good sign is Algo moving somewhat independently of Bitcoin .
But short of a surprise buying spree out of USA today, this plot holds.

0.2750 is the KEY support right now, making one path more likely.
IF we break below that, expect a rapid drop for "wave 3 of C".
If we HOLD and bounce, be wary of the .297x area for Bull Trap.

Pardon the cluttered chart, wanted to post notes at each important zone.
If already in a long (like I am), trailing stops below last fib is a good idea here.
If not long, this is NOT a good place to enter, too much risk with small reward.

Here is the plot that scored the bounce (nice profits) for us:
Dec 03
Comment: Dripped through the immediate support, but NO signs of a rapid wave 3 down yet
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Dec 03
Comment: So here we are at the alternative target for wave B Crucial moment for this asset

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Dec 03
Comment: Zoomed IN we see exact reactions to the two zone boundaries
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Dec 03
Comment: Hmm, passed the extended target by a wee bit and pulling back But I must admit this is far more bullish (or less bearish) than I expected.

Taking a closer look, looks like the Green 5.618 was the key, not the 5.236 as originally plotted
Zooming OUT, and based on above observations, I have adjusted resistance zone, and plotted a NEW support zone So right now we should wait to see if .2781/87 is hit, and what the reaction is.

In summary:
- More bullish than I thought.
- ABC's still look valid, at least no ruled out.
- Couple of new zones to keep on chart going forward.
Dec 03
Comment: Looking at the pullback, it is OUT of sync with the Green Fib that fib was pushing UP, and is a bad sign that it is no longer in control.

so plotting a Fib of the drop (in Red) There are two zones of interest below, at .2688 and .2648/62.
BUT, the Green Fib could still regain sync, if it bounces at .2287

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Dec 04
Comment: No re-sync on Green Fib yet Next chance at .2748/50
But I think we are headed to lower targets at green arrows.

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Dec 04
Comment: Coming up on Critical Test of the Green Fib at .2688 as mentioned above
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Dec 04
Comment: PING decent bounce off the second target.
Lets see if it has any legs ....

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Dec 04
Comment: Needs to get past .2747/58 or will get one more leg down (which I anticipate actually)

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So do you still think it will drop to .2350ish?
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EuroMotif RTurner090
@RTurner090, not as confident of drop to .2350 as I was.
Kinda depends on the weather I guess (bitcoin that is).
Am trying to plot some zones to help rule-in or rule-out some possibilities ....
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How did you determine the legs for the retrace??
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EuroMotif RTurner090
@RTurner090, Good question, was mostly a guess based on Elliott "guidelines".
and ABC should have the A and the C with 5 sub waves, and the B with 3 subs.
The drop fit "A" well, the bounce fit "B" well, so I was guessing the C was coming...
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