timwest
Long

USA Population is up 50% since 1976 but not Auto Sales

FRED:ALTSALES   Light Weight Vehicle Sales: Autos & Light Trucks
506 9 11
When we look at auto sales, do we adjust for the number of people in America?

If you see the lower chart, you can see we are just over the trend in Light Vehicle sales. The trend is 16 million and we hit 18 million and backed off to 17 million recently.

It sure looks like the number of cars sold "per person" in the USA is down dramatically over the last 40 years, which means there is plenty more upside potential in auto sales.

These are more tools are available for you at TradingView in the "Economic Data" section that you can graph. Graph and learn.

Tim

12:16PM EST 9/12/2016
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TomPower
2 months ago
Tim but we wonder how Electric bicycles are doing
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timwest PRO TomPower
2 months ago
Funny you mentioned that. I have ridden three different electric bikes this summer and I found them to be quite inspiring. They are pedal-assisted ones, meaning you have to do some pedaling to get the bike to add electric-power to the wheels. The bikes can all go 28+ miles on a charge, which seems quite impressive. There are fat-wheeled bikes for riding on the beach, big-seated bikes for casual riding around town, and performance-bikes. The company that I sampled was Fifield Electric Bikes www. fifield .com 781-927-1511 and the salesman was Al Lenoci.
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Bwstrading PRO
2 months ago
Insightful..thanks for highlighting the Data section. Useful tools in there
+1 Reply
timwest PRO Bwstrading
2 months ago
So many amazing tools.
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timwest PRO
2 months ago
With great data we should unearth great conclusions and insights. From this regression, you can see that 16 million is the "central tendency", which should slowly rise over time and should rise even more when you factor in population growth.
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2use
2 months ago
Did you account the use of resold cars? I assume all purchases throughout times are contributing to the further repurchase - i wonder if that is playing into this stat. If the amount of actual Buys are stable and relative to the population growth, its just not new cars anymore
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timwest PRO 2use
21 days ago
@2use, More data would certainly give us more info. I see so many bearish forecasters being very negative about the prospects for auto sales, but not considering that lenders are still making loans to new buyers and not factoring in that car sales are still low relative to population. I also think that Trump wants to get the economy going again, and he may eliminate the automobile sales tax for cars on a scale under the annual median income. Eliminate dual sales tax on cars that are used also. It doesn't make sense for states to collect taxes on cars when they are re-sold. So wrong.
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felix997
2 months ago
i think thats because revenu are less than 40 years ago

http://www.economicgreenfield.com/2011/09/14/u-s-real-mean-household-income-growth-chart-1967-2010/
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timwest PRO felix997
21 days ago
@felix997, Good point for sure. Income has been weak. And probably weaker if the real inflation rate was shown. Most economists argue that inflation has been under-reported for well over a decade. Cars last longer, are more reliable and get better gas mileage, so those factors help the cost of a car as a percentage of income per year to be flat to down over the past 20 years. It's time to keep pushing for more efficient vehicles through incentives to turn in gas-guzzlers.
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