I am not liking that the 8 EMA was resistance today at this point in the descending wedge. We got a good bounce on the 2nd there at $6, tried to stay above on the 8th before falling through, and having difficulty getting back above that doesn't look very cash money. I hate seeing that be resistance. But we haven't fallen into the former range we were in on the 25th and 26th. There is a border there with the 200 EMA holding and the 400 EMA just below it to act as a support. Being above those two, as long as we stay above, then long term are still in an uptrend. Its also the area where we first entered the big breakout to 25, if we leave that area and drop lower than that I think psychologically anyone who bought in seeing that that was a great entry predicting a breakout would be getting out, if they weren't smart enough to have gotten out already. Meaning we will see how this wedge concludes on the 10th, or 11th.
On the 2nd we fell beneath most of the shorter term EMAs, meaning that short term we would be in a downtrend. However since the price refuses to break the lower level of support of this descending wedge, that means selling pressure is gradually decreasing, if the upper level of resistance is broken, and the price breaks out we could begin a strong upward trend.
Volume is the key, volume has dropped off to almost nothing meaning we're possibly gearing up for something. On the initial breakout of this falling wedge pattern, we need to see high volume as confirmation. If the volume on the breakout stays low that indicates a lack of interest and a higher probability that its just a false breakout. If we manage to breakout upward at all.
If we don't break out and continue sideways, then we eventually work our way up because we would still be in an uptrend, but it could be a very slow journey as the only moving averages we'd be above would be the 200 and 400, extremely slow ones. Covid19 restrictions lifted, bought by Netflix or Amazon, something like that would probably need to be the catalyst to get us really moving again at that point. Targets if we do breakout upward would be 7.35 - 8.50 since there's a little resistance there. 9.60 to 10.03 I think is the most likely target since the fib level 0.236 is there. We could possibly wick up to 11 and come back down to 10, I'm just noticing there's a gap there.
The gap between 10.15 and 11.08, gaps like to get filled. Unless AMC goes bankrupt for some reason I think we get back over 11.00, but there's no telling when that would be. Just because that gap is there doesn't mean we reach it anytime soon, but it does make me feel better about my long.
I'd like for us to not go below 5.30, at worst 4.80, below that I think we range in this blue box zone and continue lower as we'll be below all moving averages eventually falling to 3.60 or lower.
Ultimately, falling wedge is high probability. This price is good enough for an entry, but wait for volume before entry. Risky short term since it only got to be where it was by being a meme, maybe alright long term. Good upside possibility, but manage your risk.
On the 2nd we fell beneath most of the shorter term EMAs, meaning that short term we would be in a downtrend. However since the price refuses to break the lower level of support of this descending wedge, that means selling pressure is gradually decreasing, if the upper level of resistance is broken, and the price breaks out we could begin a strong upward trend.
Volume is the key, volume has dropped off to almost nothing meaning we're possibly gearing up for something. On the initial breakout of this falling wedge pattern, we need to see high volume as confirmation. If the volume on the breakout stays low that indicates a lack of interest and a higher probability that its just a false breakout. If we manage to breakout upward at all.
If we don't break out and continue sideways, then we eventually work our way up because we would still be in an uptrend, but it could be a very slow journey as the only moving averages we'd be above would be the 200 and 400, extremely slow ones. Covid19 restrictions lifted, bought by Netflix or Amazon, something like that would probably need to be the catalyst to get us really moving again at that point. Targets if we do breakout upward would be 7.35 - 8.50 since there's a little resistance there. 9.60 to 10.03 I think is the most likely target since the fib level 0.236 is there. We could possibly wick up to 11 and come back down to 10, I'm just noticing there's a gap there.
The gap between 10.15 and 11.08, gaps like to get filled. Unless AMC goes bankrupt for some reason I think we get back over 11.00, but there's no telling when that would be. Just because that gap is there doesn't mean we reach it anytime soon, but it does make me feel better about my long.
I'd like for us to not go below 5.30, at worst 4.80, below that I think we range in this blue box zone and continue lower as we'll be below all moving averages eventually falling to 3.60 or lower.
Ultimately, falling wedge is high probability. This price is good enough for an entry, but wait for volume before entry. Risky short term since it only got to be where it was by being a meme, maybe alright long term. Good upside possibility, but manage your risk.
Comment:
Wedge failed. Volume never showed up in a meaningful way to break up or down explosively. On to the next idea:
