AMD, Major/Minor correction or progress continuation?Any clue?
There are some moments in live wave counting that different scenarios are valid based on Elliott wave certain rules . What can an analyst do in these cases? Is there any clue? Of course there are some guidelines which can help us to give more weight to a possible scenario.
Please note that these are ,as the name suggests, guidelines not rules which means things can deviate from what we consider to be the most probable.
AMD at this point is one of those examples. Several valid wave counting are published for AMD every day. Most of them are valid. Some are optimistic and some are pessimistic. I myself think , based on larger cycle waves, AMD is generally bullish. But what is the most probable next move?
I showed on the chart just two valid wave counting. There are more but we just skip those since the purpose of this publication is education not a trade analysis and these two scenario serve our purpose well enough.
On the left side of the chart we can see a scenario which suggests that a cycle is completed and we are going to have a retracement back to 106 USD and even back to below 100 if we consider a completion of the larger cycle wave ( which is possible).
On the right side of the chart we can see a scenario which suggests AMD is just completed wave 1 of a new wave cycle and after a minor retracement it goes to much higher targets.
Which scenario is more probable now? Here I show you some guidelines:
1- Alternation : wave 2 and wave correction are different in time and characters. As we can see what labeled in left side of the chart confirms this guideline.
2. Volume is highest in wave 3 while price goes higher in wave 5. Again left chart shows it clearly.
3. Slope is highest at wave 3. As it is clear in left side wave count.
4. Optimism is at the peak at wave 5. As you can see on many publication and target analysis these days, majority of analyst talk about 180 TP for AMD.
on contrary there are some guidelines which support right side wave counting. One example is :
1- wave 3 is often the extended wave with clear subdivision ( please note that what labeled on the right side as wave 1 can be just wave 1 of 3 of 3 or wave 3 of 3). So far the most extended wave is the last move up from 99.5 to above 140.
All in All as more guidelines supports left side scenario we can give more weight to it, however we keep it in mind that these are just guidelines not rules.Also we have to consider that we are doing live wave counting. Any further progress without a correction calls for major wave count updates.
Can we have a further clue? Of course. Since a cycle from 99.5 to above 140 is most likely completed we probably will have a correction. The amount of next correction and it's character can help us to choose between possible scenarios. We can update our wave counts as upcoming wave character unfolds.
Please do not hesitate to ask questions if more explanation is needed, We are here to help each other as far as we are able to.
Good luck my friends.
Please note that these are ,as the name suggests, guidelines not rules which means things can deviate from what we consider to be the most probable.
AMD at this point is one of those examples. Several valid wave counting are published for AMD every day. Most of them are valid. Some are optimistic and some are pessimistic. I myself think , based on larger cycle waves, AMD is generally bullish. But what is the most probable next move?
I showed on the chart just two valid wave counting. There are more but we just skip those since the purpose of this publication is education not a trade analysis and these two scenario serve our purpose well enough.
On the left side of the chart we can see a scenario which suggests that a cycle is completed and we are going to have a retracement back to 106 USD and even back to below 100 if we consider a completion of the larger cycle wave ( which is possible).
On the right side of the chart we can see a scenario which suggests AMD is just completed wave 1 of a new wave cycle and after a minor retracement it goes to much higher targets.
Which scenario is more probable now? Here I show you some guidelines:
1- Alternation : wave 2 and wave correction are different in time and characters. As we can see what labeled in left side of the chart confirms this guideline.
2. Volume is highest in wave 3 while price goes higher in wave 5. Again left chart shows it clearly.
3. Slope is highest at wave 3. As it is clear in left side wave count.
4. Optimism is at the peak at wave 5. As you can see on many publication and target analysis these days, majority of analyst talk about 180 TP for AMD.
on contrary there are some guidelines which support right side wave counting. One example is :
1- wave 3 is often the extended wave with clear subdivision ( please note that what labeled on the right side as wave 1 can be just wave 1 of 3 of 3 or wave 3 of 3). So far the most extended wave is the last move up from 99.5 to above 140.
All in All as more guidelines supports left side scenario we can give more weight to it, however we keep it in mind that these are just guidelines not rules.Also we have to consider that we are doing live wave counting. Any further progress without a correction calls for major wave count updates.
Can we have a further clue? Of course. Since a cycle from 99.5 to above 140 is most likely completed we probably will have a correction. The amount of next correction and it's character can help us to choose between possible scenarios. We can update our wave counts as upcoming wave character unfolds.
Please do not hesitate to ask questions if more explanation is needed, We are here to help each other as far as we are able to.
Good luck my friends.
Comment:
AMD goes higher? Can it reach to the top of channel created by connecting labeled wave ii and iv and a parallel line from top of wave iii? If so do we have a channel break out?
Comment:
As I told there are some alternative scenarios.We should consider all when we do live wave counting. Lets hope for the best bulls.
Comment:
We shold never go short or sell our shares unless we find a strong reason to do so.
Comment:
Top of the channel seems to be a strong resistance. An extended wave 5? Lets follow.
Comment:
Extended wave 5 or wave 3 of 3. We will find out following the corrective wave pattern.
First guideline alternation should be:
Wave 2 and wave 4 corrections are different ...