Short

Updated

AMD to $10 - bearish divergence

On the above 2-month chart price action has appreciated 8500% since September 2015. A number of reasons now exist to be bearish. Side note: Timing the market tops or bottoms is not my forte. Instead, these large time frame ideas are an attempt to measure the probability of continued trend versus risk.

Why bearish?

1) The ‘incredible sell’ signal prints. On a 2-month chart! This is a bubble. A large bubble. In fact, if you got a moment, it's a twelve-storey bubble with a magnificent entrance hall, carpeting throughout, 24-hour portage, and an enormous sign on the roof, saying 'This Is a Large bubble’. A large bubble requires a large plan.

2) Regular bearish divergence. A number of oscillators are printing bearish divergence with the recent higher high in price action.

3) The upper trend line resistance. Pay attention to this one, look left. Only twice before has price action reacted so strongly to this resistance, once in 84 and again in 2000. Will this time be different? It’s a heck of risk to take!

4) Stochastic RSI tests 40 and rejects. (Purple circles). Look left, the last time this happened a 80% correction followed.

Why $10? Well that’s going back to point 3. On the previous two occasions price action confirmed resistance. A correction to the Fibonacci 0.618 golden ratio was then observed. The ratio currently prints around $10.

Is it possible price action moves higher? For sure. Who knows where the top is.

Is it probable? No. The probability of continued upside is now <10% versus a high risk of downside.

Good luck!

Ww

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-20%

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Expect a bonce from $70. Don't FOMO, however, you'll only be providing exit liquidity to the institutions, wait for $10 instead.

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** broken market structure confirmed **

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Thought the AMD bulls would be making an appearance today, it seems they've tucked tail's and run.

With broken market structure confirmed AND past resistance failing to offer support, it tells you two things:

1) No appetite from buyers at those levels.

2) Support now not available until $60.

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Longs will get a 2nd chance to exit in the days/weeks ahead before the kiss of death at $100, where market structure was broken.

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As expected price action touched the $100 and was then sold off hard. That was the confirmation to expect much lower lows.

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** confirm death cross on weekly **

Time to pack it pack it in AmD looking for the bin.

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The move up to past support is a test of resistance. A bear flag is printing. There is no trade here until support or resistance is confirmed.

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Perfect rejection off the June 7th resistance as mentioned above. It is now highly probable price action will visit $60.

Last week's close, closed under the 21-week EMA. That's not happened since 2018. AMD justing making bulls MAD.

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** warning for any bulls left standing **

Some significant events on the 2-month chart since publishing back in February.

1) The 2-month chart is about to print a new candle in 10-days. Currently that candle is a gravestone DOJI.

2) Price action confirms break out of rising wedge pattern.

3) Huge selling volume. Huge.

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24 hours remaining to close price action at $95. Failure to do that before July 1st will print the largest bearish engulfing candle on the 6-month chart since 1986.

No support until $30

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A relief rally to $90 should be expected in the coming weeks in the current downtrend channel. However the overall downtrend is expected to continue.

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A relief rally to $90 was achieved as predicted a few weeks back to the upper side of the descending channel.

What next? There is absolutely nothing to do but profit taking. From the 10-day chart below a larger head and shoulders pattern is printing following the smaller. Only once the right shoulder is printed + confirmation, breakdown or up, can action be taken.

Make no mistake how far price action will fall if a breakdown is observed, $35.

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The relief rally came and went, perfect rejection from the new $100 resistance.

The trend is now confirmed, lower highs lower lows. All the way down to the target.

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For the first time ever a 'incredible sell' signal has printed on the 6-month chart.

Notice the bearish engulfing candle? Bulls, this is your last call. Get a lifejacket or go down with the ship.

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The 2-day death cross is now confirmed following the rejection from the 2-day/200-day SMA.

Price action -50% so far. Another -80% to go.

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Down $10 in what 24hrs? At this rate the target will be hit before the end of the month.

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If you've held your short open since $120, well done. No action required. The 2-week chart has just confirmed a death cross with broken market structure.

Hold them shorts open all the way to $10

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The bulls have hours to prevent one of the most bearish candles ever seen on the quarterly chart.

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“AMD has warned investors its guidance for quarterly revenue was out by $1.1 billion.”

Just did the weekly shop, was $15 over my estimate.

The fact AMD gave folks a heads up before releasing the Q3 results on November 1st informs investors there’s a bucket load of bad news coming.

Source: theregister.com/2022/10/07/amd_q3_guidance_warning/

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Only $46 to go until target.

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If there's a significant sell off today there might be a cheeky change to take a long position from $42 back up to resistance.

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Be ready for a -20% move..

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"short" continues from $76

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2022 closes 'bearish engulfing'. This has only happened once before, 2006. Look left to see what happens next.

For the bulls, you've got to see a monthly close above $92.

For the bears, feast on the bull tears. Nothing to do.

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When it hits the $90 area, be short.

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The ultimate zero sum game, price action returning to where it was 2-years ago.

More importantly price action is fast approaching the point where market structure previous broke. A rejection from 120 is confirmation.

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Am detecting a few bulls making victory laps claiming the idea is wrong. Remember this is a macro chart, each candle is 2-months of data. Price action corrected 60% at the time of publication. The move back to the all time high is not surprising. A double top in price action would not be unusual, just like the last market top between 2000 and 2005, look left.

There is no gain here, only a bear market rally. Corrective markets correct in 5 waves. Wave one with the 60% correction was followed by Wave 2 to the ATH. Corrective wave 3 will come when the double top prints.

Be patient, $10 will come.

2-month

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At resistance. A correction to 100 dollars is highly probable.

IF that happens price action WILL print a lower high on the macro. This is what an exit liquidity grab looks like from market tops.

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A rally back. to the all time high should be expected in the coming weeks. Nothing about the macro idea has changed, however.

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Spoke to soon in last comment, the weekly support failed with the close of this week. Correction from here on.

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At the same resistance price action has been rejected from those past 3 years. Will this time be different?

2-day

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Often receive comments and jokes and humour about this idea. A running joke.
Does it make the idea any less valid?
No, not at all.
As a matter of fact price action is only up around $20 from the published.

At this time price action has not printed a bearish divergence this strong since 2015, 2006, and 1995

Is the target area valid? $10 area is now slightly higher to $15-20. This is because of the recent higher high the caused the bearish divergence to print.

without_worries

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without_worries

BTC
bc1q2eckdzh0q8vsd7swcc8et6ze7s99khhxyl7zwy

Weblink: patreon.com/withoutworries

Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR

Also on: