AMD - Great Re-Entry $87.50 / $100 Next Stop
0. Added to AMD at $87.05+ Today;
1. Holding $87.50 Channel Reclamation;
2. Looks good for run to $100;
- drchelsea
1. Holding $87.50 Channel Reclamation;
2. Looks good for run to $100;
- drchelsea
Comment:
3. Also corresponds to BOTTOM of Broadening Wedge. Should head back up nicely, unless the overall Market Corrects.
Comment:
WHY DID AMD FALL AFTER EARNINGS?
Stop buying AMD Calls
DD
Hey guys,
A lot of you don't know me, as I don't usually post here. I'm usually over at r/AMD_stock posting DD there. But I'm posting here because the recent activity in the stock led me to realize a huge, glaring problem with the stock's performance and it's latest earnings.
Let me step back a bit first.
Last Friday the stock plummeted 12% after posting the best earnings it possibly could have posted. At AMD_Stock, we usually brush off the post-earnings crush and continue our bull plays (or the smarter ones wait until after earnings to get back in). But this post-earnings crush was different. For this earnings, there was zero fundamental reason why the stock should go down. The earnings were excellent, the margins were excellent, the guidance for 1Q21 was incredible, and the guidance for FY21 was almost double what the street was expecting. Yet the stock still went down. It went down from $94 pre-earnings to almost $84....on the best possible news.
What more could the street have wanted? Did shareholders want a +60% revenue increase YoY, instead of just +40%? Did they want 3x year-over-year revenue in 1Q20, instead of just 2x? Did the street expect us to beat our FY20 targets by more than they anticipated? Did investors want the fab capacity issues to be completely resolved earlier than 2Q21? Did they want Milan to be released earlier than March '21? Was there any reason to sell off after an earnings as incredible as that? You could even see the bewilderment on Lisa Su's face as she started an interview with CNBC the morning after.
Why? No financial news, not even CNBC, could pin a 'reason' on the drop.
And then I realized the problem. It's you.
You buy the cheapest AMD weeklies you can and hold them through earnings like it can't go tits up. You hope that AMD beats all expectations, and that the stock price skyrockets on your tendie-train choo-choo-ing to the moon. Post-earnings you sell your OTM calls just as they go ITM to some suck-ass broker-dealer, and go do some h00kers and blow and make a golden shrine to Mama Su and thank her for your amazing luck. Good thing those stupid broker-dealers were so desperate to buy your calls just before expiry.. you would have bankrupted them if you held on to them any longer!
The day after earnings comes and you wake up and the price is down 5% and dropping. You sell immediately, because you can't see it recovering by Friday, when your calls expire. This causes MMs to sell the shares they bought as a hedge against selling you your calls. Stock goes down further. Other people sell their calls, and MMs sell more shares to reduce the hedge even more, on and on until Friday expiration rolls around and bag-holders let their calls expire worthless, along with their hopes and dreams.
Stop losing at AMD! How? INVEST PROPERLY
How? Buy and hold shares or LEAPS. Stop chasing the mythical overnight gains. AMD is a long-term success and it has room to double. DO IT NOW - Price is recovering from the crush, but are still trading at a 20% discount to analyst consensus, and at a 10% discount from it's recent highs.
Conclusion: This is a better buy-and-hold than GME, BB, or anything. AMD has grown continuously in the past 5 years and, if you read the DD on r/AMD_stock, you'll discover that it also has an incredible growth roadmap the next 5 years.
Stop losing. Buy shares and double your money.
Stop buying AMD Calls
DD
Hey guys,
A lot of you don't know me, as I don't usually post here. I'm usually over at r/AMD_stock posting DD there. But I'm posting here because the recent activity in the stock led me to realize a huge, glaring problem with the stock's performance and it's latest earnings.
Let me step back a bit first.
Last Friday the stock plummeted 12% after posting the best earnings it possibly could have posted. At AMD_Stock, we usually brush off the post-earnings crush and continue our bull plays (or the smarter ones wait until after earnings to get back in). But this post-earnings crush was different. For this earnings, there was zero fundamental reason why the stock should go down. The earnings were excellent, the margins were excellent, the guidance for 1Q21 was incredible, and the guidance for FY21 was almost double what the street was expecting. Yet the stock still went down. It went down from $94 pre-earnings to almost $84....on the best possible news.
What more could the street have wanted? Did shareholders want a +60% revenue increase YoY, instead of just +40%? Did they want 3x year-over-year revenue in 1Q20, instead of just 2x? Did the street expect us to beat our FY20 targets by more than they anticipated? Did investors want the fab capacity issues to be completely resolved earlier than 2Q21? Did they want Milan to be released earlier than March '21? Was there any reason to sell off after an earnings as incredible as that? You could even see the bewilderment on Lisa Su's face as she started an interview with CNBC the morning after.
Why? No financial news, not even CNBC, could pin a 'reason' on the drop.
And then I realized the problem. It's you.
You buy the cheapest AMD weeklies you can and hold them through earnings like it can't go tits up. You hope that AMD beats all expectations, and that the stock price skyrockets on your tendie-train choo-choo-ing to the moon. Post-earnings you sell your OTM calls just as they go ITM to some suck-ass broker-dealer, and go do some h00kers and blow and make a golden shrine to Mama Su and thank her for your amazing luck. Good thing those stupid broker-dealers were so desperate to buy your calls just before expiry.. you would have bankrupted them if you held on to them any longer!
The day after earnings comes and you wake up and the price is down 5% and dropping. You sell immediately, because you can't see it recovering by Friday, when your calls expire. This causes MMs to sell the shares they bought as a hedge against selling you your calls. Stock goes down further. Other people sell their calls, and MMs sell more shares to reduce the hedge even more, on and on until Friday expiration rolls around and bag-holders let their calls expire worthless, along with their hopes and dreams.
Stop losing at AMD! How? INVEST PROPERLY
How? Buy and hold shares or LEAPS. Stop chasing the mythical overnight gains. AMD is a long-term success and it has room to double. DO IT NOW - Price is recovering from the crush, but are still trading at a 20% discount to analyst consensus, and at a 10% discount from it's recent highs.
Conclusion: This is a better buy-and-hold than GME, BB, or anything. AMD has grown continuously in the past 5 years and, if you read the DD on r/AMD_stock, you'll discover that it also has an incredible growth roadmap the next 5 years.
Stop losing. Buy shares and double your money.
Comment:
This is a re-post from Reddit, from "somebody" who only usually posts on r/AMD_stock.
Bang on.
Do I need permission to post this? Hmmmm. Good question ;)
Bang on.
Do I need permission to post this? Hmmmm. Good question ;)
Comment:
UPDATE on AMD
Oh and when were all those options PURCHASED? The weeklies? January 4th. We could not account for the spike and drop that day, $92 to $96 to $92, it was weeklies options driven.
That gave us the answer.
Oh and when were all those options PURCHASED? The weeklies? January 4th. We could not account for the spike and drop that day, $92 to $96 to $92, it was weeklies options driven.
That gave us the answer.
Comment:
If you own AMD and have got screwed over earnings, TIME and TIME again, this is why. Now you know.
These are known as "Market Inefficiencies", and Big Players exploit them.
The BIG BOYS have amplified the moves, like on January 4th, we WE monitor stock technicals, flow, options, and social media in real-time with correlation engines. This causes Institutions to Amplify the Move, and Day Traders to help when it pops up on the scanners.
Pump and Dump if you will here, being exploited on many fronts.
These are known as "Market Inefficiencies", and Big Players exploit them.
The BIG BOYS have amplified the moves, like on January 4th, we WE monitor stock technicals, flow, options, and social media in real-time with correlation engines. This causes Institutions to Amplify the Move, and Day Traders to help when it pops up on the scanners.
Pump and Dump if you will here, being exploited on many fronts.
Comment:
UPDATE 12:10PM EST
The Feb 5 $88 Strike and the Feb 12 $88 Strike CALL have been eliminated.
Now $88.11 should be a new floor.
We now have the $90 Feb 12 / Feb 19 and out CALL to work off.
Should be a nice accent to $90. Slow and steady.
Unless Market Corrects of course.
- Drchelsea
The Feb 5 $88 Strike and the Feb 12 $88 Strike CALL have been eliminated.
Now $88.11 should be a new floor.
We now have the $90 Feb 12 / Feb 19 and out CALL to work off.
Should be a nice accent to $90. Slow and steady.
Unless Market Corrects of course.
- Drchelsea